Feinting the Line's picks part 1: Union Berlin vs Hoffenheim, Reims vs Montpellier, Mainz vs Augsburg, & more
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Union Berlin v. Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 7:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Hoffenheim -1 @ +445 | .375u
THE PLAY: Union Berlin/Hoffenheim o2.5 @ -120 | .415u
Hoffenheim crashed out of Europa League competition at the week with a shock defeat in the second leg of its Round of 32 tie with Norwegian side Molde. At this point, everyone and their mother saw the expected goals and shots stats in that contest. We believe recency bias possibly plays a factor in what we perceive to be a cheap price for Hoffenheim in this spot.
Prices on the alternate line have stuck steady while you can find our goals price available at Pinnacle.
We expect a high-flying contest here. These teams average 3.28 goals per match in league play. While a price of -120 suggests this contest sees at least three goals 54.5% of the time, we estimate these squads produce more than two goals at a 56.2% - 59% clip. Accordingly, we approximate a value edge of 1.7% - 4.5% on the goals play.
Five of the visitors seven league victories have come by margins of more than one goal and half of Union Berlin’s Bundesliga defeats were suffered by more than a single goal.
Reims v. Montpellier | Ligue One | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Montpellier ML +205 | .4u
One of the best feelings on an early investment (other than when you have the blessed opportunity to cash a ticket) is watching a dog flip to the favorite.
We have accumulated a significant $.26 (or .26u) of closing line value on this bet as Montpellier’s win price has shortened to a best available spot of +179 at Pinnacle.
At +205, the initial ML price from the bookie implied a 32.8% chance for Montpellier victory. We estimate Michael Der Zakarian’s side wins 36% - 37.1% of ilk-natured matches. Consequently, we approximate a value edge of 3.2% - 4.3%.
Montpellier travels to Stade Auguste-Delaune II on scorching form. The away side has won four of its previous five in all competitions with no defeats including impressive victories against top half of the table squads Lyon and Rennes.
While Reims expected goals, goal difference, and advanced play-flow statistics suggest it should rest higher than 14th in the table, we believe Montpellier (9th on points) provides the value.
Mainz v. Augsburg | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Augsburg PK @ +151 | .4u
THE PLAY: Augsburg ML @ +244 | .35u
THE PLAY: Augsburg -1 @ +530 | .2u
Prices for these plays are just starting to move marginally (about $.10 or .1u on ML) against our positions at the time of writing.
Although Mainz enters the match on somewhat impressive form while Augsburg has not won in four of its past five league matches, we believe these factors could be reasons we see value in the price. Additionally, Augsburg’s four previous matches involved Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg, RB Leipzig, and Bayer Leverkusen: an absolute gauntlet of top-6 opponents.
We estimate Augsburg collects three points from 32.25% - 33.75% of similarly situated fixtures. Considering an implied probability of 29.1% based on a ML price of +244, we approximate 3.15% - 4.65% value edge on the ML play.
Cadiz v. Real Betis | La Liga | 10:15 am ET
THE PLAY: Real Betis ML @ +108 | .5u
THE PLAY: Real Betis -1 @ +230 | 1u
We have garnered marginal, but significant closing line value on these plays. Pinnacle provides the best prices currently with the ML offered at even money and the alternate line offered at +204. Consequently, we claim $.34 (or .34u) of closing line value on the plays with ample room for prices to shorten significantly over the next twelve hours considering Manuel Pellegrini’s side is likely to be backed by public and sharp money.
Although Pellegrini can not call on the services of William Carvalho (red card suspension) or the ever-influential Nabil Fekir (hamstring injury), we believe these factors might have been overpriced by the oddsmakers. The home team holds the second-worst defensive record in La Liga by goals scored, the joint-worst league goal difference at -19, and the worst average defensive ranking amongst advanced defensive statistics categories.