Feinting the Line's mid-day Saturday Soccer picks: Leeds vs Aston Villa, Alaves vs Osasuna, Getafe vs Valencia
Aston Villa's players celebrate after a goal. Associated Press Photo/Rui Vieira, Pool

Feinting the Line's mid-day Saturday Soccer picks: Leeds vs Aston Villa, Alaves vs Osasuna, Getafe vs Valencia

Leeds United v. Aston Villa, Premier League, 12:30 pm EST; Deportivo Alaves v. Osasuna, La Liga, 12:30 pm; Getafe v. Valencia, Serie A, Noon

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Leeds United v. Aston Villa | Premier League | 12:30 pm ET

THE PLAY: Aston Villa ML @ +179 | .5u

THE PLAY: Aston Villa -1 @ +345 | .5u

Today, FtL provides thirteen bets to hit. Eleven of the plays, across five matches, are plus closing line value and plus expected value plays. These are not. A best ML price is available of +208. Unfortunately, skipper Jack Grealish was diagnosed with injury a week ago sending prices spiraling downward. Since then, marginal movement has slightly shifted price the way of the Villains, but we still face an uphill battle here.

Dean Smith’s side sits two spots higher in the table with +11 goal difference. While we believe the game would have been about evenly matched with Grealish, Leeds United has an advantage with Villa facing the contest down its Captain.

Deportivo Alaves v. Osasuna | La Liga | 12:30 pm ET

THE PLAY: Osasuna ML @ +225 | .2u

THE PLAY: Osasuna -1 @ +600 | .2u

Since posting to our Twitter, we have garnered a significant $.30 (or .3u) of closing line value on the ML while accruing an impressive $1.00 or (1u) of movement in our favor on the alternate line for Osasuna.

We estimate Jagoba Arrasate’s side manages three points from ilk-natures games at a 3.5% - 4.3% higher clip than a ML price of +225 implies at 30.8%.

Getafe v. Valencia | Serie A | Noon ET

Valencia ML @ +230 | .25u

Valencia -1 @ +600 | .25u

Valencia visits the Coliseum Alfonso Perez for Round 25 of La Liga play. While Getafe remains three spots below Valencia in the table with -11 in comparative goal difference, Valencia still acts as the underdogs to the hosts.

Prices have marginally shortened to +216 and +575, respectively.

We expect the ML play at +230 provides an estimated 2.75% value edge considering an implied probability of 30.3% because we envision Valencia winning between a 32% and 34.1% of similarly situated fixtures.

While five of Valencia’s six league victories have come by way of two goals or more margin, Getafe has been defeated by at least two goals in six of its twelve La Liga losses. Consequently, the alternate line likely provides enhanced value opportunity.

THE PLAYS

Aston Villa ML @ +179 | .5u

Aston Villa -1 @ +345 | .5u

Osasuna ML @ +225 | .2u

Osasuna -1 @ +600 | .2u

Valencia ML @ +230 | .25u

Valencia -1 @ +600 | .25u

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