Feinting the Line: 7 more Sunday soccer picks for Bundesliga, La Liga & Ligue 1, start with Hertha vs Leipzig
Hertha Berlin v. Red Bull Leipzig | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Red Bull Leipzig -1 @ +128 | .7u
We have garnered a marginally significant $.10 (or .1u) of closing line value on this play. Because of RB Leipzig’s status as favorites as well as public money trends, this line will likely shorten further by game time.
Julian Naglesmann’s side travels to Olympistadion Berlin aiming to close Bayern Munich’s gap at the top of the table following the reigning World Champions’ defeat in Frankfurt on Saturday. Leipzig can not afford to let this good of a chance at the league slip if it rates itself a contender. If Leipzig prudently considers its chances against Liverpool down two goals in its Champions League tie, Naglesmann’s team will compete all-out this weekend in a bid for Bundesliga glory. We expect a preferred XI featuring Christopher Nkunku because of the Champions League deficit.
Hertha Berlin is 1W-3D-6L in its previous ten Bundesliga matches. In four of those six losses, defeat came via a two goal or more margin.
We estimate RB Leipzig wins similarly situated contests at a 3.5% -5.25% higher clip than a ML price of -133 (available at time we posted play) suggests at an implied probability of 57.1%.
Real Sociedad v. Deportivo Alaves | La Liga | 10:15 am ET
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad win to nil @ +175 | .5u
Real Sociedad has all-but crashed out of the Europa League competition thanks to an embarrassing (as was our $ on them) display against Manchester United at the mid-week.
We simply do not feel comfortable holding a shutout win ticket so soon after that beating; however, this play has produced a substantial $.37 (or .37u) of closing line value. A best price of +138 is available at bet365.
Lorient v. LOSC Lille | Ligue One | 11:00 am ET
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille ML @ -109 | .4u
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille -1 @ +283 | .15u
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille win to nil @ +210 | .15u
Add Lille to the list of mid-week disappointments. Up by a goal going into the last ten minutes of the first leg, Lille conceded two goals to Ajax who now controls that Europa League tie. Lille should still provide solid value as an away favorite against a Lorient side fighting to avoid the relegation zone.
While the Lille ML price of -109 has shortened marginally to a best available price of -113, we estimate Lille collects three points in like conditions 55% -56.5% of the time. Accordingly, the ML play provides an estimated 2.8% - 4.3% value edge.
We currently claim an impressive $1.07 (or 1.07u) and $.25 (or .25u) of closing line value on the alternate line and shutout win prop, respectively.
TSG Hoffenheim v. SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | Noon ET
THE PLAY: Werder Bremen DC @ -120 | .1u
THE PLAY: Werder Bremen PK @ +159 | .4u
THE PLAY: Werder Bremen ML @ +250 | .3u
THE PLAY: Werder Bremen -1 @ +560 | .2u
Hoffenheim enters Round 22 of Bundesliga action one point below Werder Bremen. Despite Werder Bremen holding a game in hand, the visitor has conceded twelve less goals than its host.
Hoffenheim threatens the back line of the opposition far less frequently and with less vigor when missing talisman number nine, Andrej Kramaric. The defensive discrepancy between the sides plus an underrated Kramaric could be reasons if in fact these plays are truly undervalued, as we believe.
Bookmakers have copped to some error in valuation so far. We have gained a significant combined closing line value of $.72 (or .72u). Best prices now available for the plays: DC -137 (Pinnacle), PK +142 (Pinnacle), ML +232 (Pinnacle), and -1 +540 (888sport).
SD Huesca v. Granada | La Liga | Noon ET
THE PLAY: Granada PK @ +151 | .65u
THE PLAY: Granada ML @ +255 | .3u
THE PLAY: Granada -1 @ +650 | .5u
Granada travels to Estadio El Alcoraz following a morale-lifting 2-0 triumph over Napoli in European competition mid-week. Huesca boasts the worst form and second-worst goal difference in the Spanish top-flight.
While these lines have lengthened about $.2 (or .2u), a piece, against our cause, we remain confident in the value these spots deliver.
We estimate Granada wins ilk-natured matches at a 2.6% - 3.75% higher rate than the ML price of +255 implies at a probability of 28.2%.
Athletic Club Bilbao v. Villarreal | La Liga | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Athletic Bilbao/Villarreal o2.5 @ +146 | .3u
THE PLAY: Athletic Bilbao PK @ +112 | .3u
THE PLAY: Athletic Bilbao -1 @ +500 | .2u
Both sides impressed last appearance through dispatching opposition comfortably while Villarreal admittedly faced higher-grade opponents. Unai Emery favors the Europa League; we believe he may have eyes set on the competition. Regardless, this game is about a coin flip because Villarreal is an extremely deep squad.
We have garnered a substantial $.29 (or .29u) of closing line value on the PK line. Meanwhile we have raked in a whopping $.94 (or .94u) of closing line value on the alternate line.
While the PK play at +$ is a safe option considering Villarreal’s propensity for league ties, the alternate line probably provides distinct value considering five of Athletic Bilbao’s eight league wins have come via multiple goal margin.
We estimate a 2.5% value edge on the o2.5 goals play considering an implied probability of 40.7% at a price of +146.
Paris Saint-Germain v. AS Monaco | Ligue One | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: AS Monaco PK @ +320 | .5u
THE PLAY: AS Monaco -1 @ +950 | .25u
Mauricio Pochettino’s masterclass, Marco Veratti’s tenacity, and Kylian Mbappe’s hattrick cashed FtL followers out to the tune of a +800 ticket at the week (not even our biggest win this week: thanks to Carlo Ancelotti and the Toffees for a -1 @ +1600 win to the tune of +8.63u).
We claim $.30 (or .3u) of closing line value on our draw no bet play with a best current price available of +290. This value play hopes to see Pochettino’s side partly rotated or at least concerned with the second leg of its Champions League tie.
Red Bull Leipzig -1 @ +128 | .7u
Real Sociedad win to nil @ +175 | .5u
LOSC Lille ML @ -109 | .4u
LOSC Lille -1 @ +283 | .15u
LOSC Lille win to nil @ +210 | .15u
Werder Bremen DC @ -120 | .1u
Werder Bremen PK @ +159 | .4u
Werder Bremen ML @ +250 | .3u
Werder Bremen -1 @ +560 | .2u
Granada PK @ +151 | .65u
Granada ML @ +255 | .3u
Granada -1 @ +650 | .5u
Athletic Bilbao/Villarreal o2.5 @ +146 | .3u
Athletic Bilbao PK @ +112 | .3u
Athletic Bilbao -1 @ +500 | .2u
AS Monaco PK @ +320 | .5u
AS Monaco -1 @ +950 | .25u