UEL picks pt. 1 from Feinting the Line incl. Crvena Zvezda v AC Milan, Real Sociedad v Manchester United, more
All matches start at 12:55 pm EST
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Olympiacos Piraeus vs. PSV Eindhoven | Europa League | 12:55 pm ET
THE PLAY: PSV Eindhoven PK @ +161 | .4u
THE PLAY: PSV Eindhoven ML @ +252 | .3u
THE PLAY: PSV Eindhoven -1 @ +545 | .3u
PSV travels to the Georgios Karaiskaki Stadium in Piraeus, Greece for the first leg of the Europa League Round of 32. Despite Cody Gakpo’s unavailability in the middle of the park, we see value on the visitors.
We have garnered an insignificant and modest $.12 or (.12u) of closing line value between the PK and ML plays. Best prices for those plays are currently available at MarathonBet (+153 and +248, respectively). Although the movement is little, price variation amongst oddsmakers for this play is high. The next cheapest price for the ML play rests $.13 more expensive at +235 which is available in most markets. Further movement pre-game time is also possible here.
We estimate PSV retains three points in similarly situated contests at a 2.6% - 4.25% higher clip than the ML price of +252 suggests at an implied probability of 28.4%.
Consequently, we rely on key forward figures Donyell Malen, Eran Zahavi, and Mario Gotze – who has been included in the squad after being questionable with a knock – to produce for us in this spot.
Real Sociedad vs. Manchester United | Europa League | 12:55 pm ET
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad PK @ +122 | .25u
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad ML @ +206 | .2u
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad -1 @ +430 | .2u
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad -1 @ +535 | .2u
The PK and ML prices on these plays have slipped about $.10 a piece against our cause. We, unfortunately, misread just how much public money would back Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United despite the Reds having serious injury concerns in this contest.
Reds fans will not like to read this, but Manchester United has looked much less dynamic during Paul Pogba’s absence in the midfield. Pogba was on scorching form when he went down with injury February 5. In addition to Pogba, United will be without the services of Scott McTominay, Anthony Martial, Edinson Cavani, and Donny Van de Beek. A dilapidated attack coupled with a midfield comprised of Nemanja Matic and Fred is simply enough reasoning for us to back Real Sociedad with a juiced ML.
Meanwhile, Real Sociedad is starting to come to form tactically as David Silva’s prowess has returned to the XI. Mikel Oyarzabal is one of the most underrated attacking players in the world.
The combined injury news in this contest has not had the effect on the market that we anticipated. However, this means our plays are widely available, so you still have the chance to play now if you did not earlier.
We estimate Real Sociedad wins ilk-natured matches around 36% of the time. Accordingly, a ML price of +206 provides an approximated edge of 3% at an implied probability of 32.7%.
Because the alternate line price has slipped considerably (we also played before 888sport opened their alternate line market which is usually cheapest market available of the type), we will add some peanuts to that play. A price of +535 is available at 888sport.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs. AC Milan | Europa League | 12:55 pm ET
THE PLAY: AC Milan ML @ -131 | .55u
The Rossoneri visits one of, if not the most hostile environments in world football on Thursday in the capital city of Serbia. To the benefit of Stefano Pioli’s side, UEFA has denied Red Star Belgrade’s request to allow fans in the stadium.
This play is still widely available around the same price. While we mulled over upping the units, we decided against this because of the likely squad rotation Milan will undergo. Pioli will likely not call on the services of the key components of the side: Franck Kessie and Zlatan Ibrahimović.
Despite the absences, we estimate AC Milan gathers all points from the contest 61% of the time. Considering an implied probability of 56.7% (based on ML price of -131) this bet provides an approximated 4% edge.
SK Slavia Praha vs. Leicester City | Europa League | 12:55 pm ET
THE PLAY: Leicester City ML @ +116 | .5u
THE PLAY: Leicester City -1 @ +225 | .5u
THE PLAY: Leicester City ML @ +121 | .25u
Lines for this game have been extremely sharp. Prices have not budged.
Although traveling to Prague is no joke, with the team having not lost in its last ten matches in all competitions, we believe the oddsmakers undervalue the away side here. Despite Leicester City’s eight absences, the most important names are rumored to be on the team sheet for the Foxes.
Crucially, the midfield pairing of Wilfred Ndidi and Youri Tielemans are said to be in the XI. We believe this couple outclasses any options available for Slavia Prague in the middle of the park. Additionally, Thomas Amartey looked surprisingly comfortable in the right back role last time out while Johnny Evans should return to the starting XI to provide a boost at the back. With the back six secured, we rely on James Maddison and Jamie Vardy to be ruthless with the opportunities that should come their way this match.
We estimate Brendan Rodgers’ side wins similarly situated matches at about 2.5% over a coin-flip rate.
Accordingly, the Foxes ML bet, at a price of +116, provides an approximated 6.7% value edge at an implied probability of 46.3%.
Now that lineups are all-but confirmed, we will place an extra .25u on the Leicester City ML at a price of +121 available at MarathonBet.