Monday soccer picks from Feinting the Line: West Ham United vs Sheffield United and Cadiz vs Athletic Bilbao
West Ham United vs. Sheffield United | Premier League | 1:00 pm ET; Cadiz vs. Athletic Bilbao | La Liga | 3:00 pm ET
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West Ham United vs. Sheffield United | Premier League | 1:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: West Ham United ML @ -134 | .45u
THE PLAY: West Ham United win to nil @ +190 | .4u
These plays are still widely available. If you played early on this one, you have been through heart palpitations before this match even kicks off along with FtL. A Michail Antonio fitness concern coupled with Thomas Soucek’s wrongly administered red card (piss-off Mike Dean) meant real concern for the value and viability of our play. We currently, however, are confident in the value these plays present considering Antonio is rumored to be in the XI while Soucek’s red card has been revoked ensuring his availability.
We estimate West Ham collects three points from games of similar stature around 61% - 63% of the time. Accordingly, we believe the ML price of -134 provides an approximated 4% value edge.
The West Ham shutout win prop may provide distinct value at a price of +190 considering David Moyes’ team has the third best defensive record in the Premier League season measuring by goals scored. Meanwhile, Sheffield United has produced the least goals - by a substantial margin - of any team in the English top flight. Chris Wilder’s Blades rests bottom of the table facing inevitable relegation.
Cadiz vs. Athletic Bilbao | La Liga | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Athletic Bilbao ML @ +133 | .5u
THE PLAY: Athletic Bilbao -1 @ +305 | .5u
Athletic Bilbao visits Estadio Ramon de Carranza at the beginning of the week. Cadiz enters the contest at 15th in the table on 24 points while Athletic Club has managed a point more with a game in hand.
Bilbao’s goal difference (+2 in La Liga) and expected goal tally (better than league average) suggest the side deserves a marginally higher spot in the table. In contrast, Cadiz might have run into some fortune to be on 24 points considering the squad holds the joint worst goal difference in the league yet sits three points above relegation. The combination of these factors could have led to the bookmakers to undervaluing Athletic Bilbao in this spot.
The oddsmakers have admitted value as well. We have garnered an immense $.54 (or .54u) of closing line value on the alternate line with $.22 (or .22u) of closing line value on the ML. Best prices for these plays currently are available at Pinnacle: ML @ +111 and -1 @ +251.
We estimate Athletic Club wins matches in these conditions at just under a coin flip rate. Accordingly, if you got in at a ML price of +133 (implied probability of 42.9%), we estimate at a 7% or higher edge.
West Ham United ML @ -134 | .45u
West Ham United win to nil @ +190 | .4u
Athletic Bilbao ML @ +133 | .5u
Athletic Bilbao -1 @ +305 | .5u