Sunday Feinting the Line picks include matches from Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, and Serie A
Southampton v Wolves, Getafe v Real Sociedad, Sampdoria v Fiorentina, Metz v RC Strasbourg, Real Madrid v Valencia, Lille v Stade Brestois 29, Wolfsburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, & Everton v Fulham
If you plan on tailing, please do so with responsibility and caution. Before you tail, please read our introduction post on Bettors Insider describing who we are, our history, and our betting style. Additionally, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter. Best of luck with all your plays.
Southampton vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | 7:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Southampton -1 @ +350 | .5u
A mere two days ago Nuno Espirito Santo’s off-form Wolves lost to Southampton via two second half concessions. Stuart Armstrong’s strike for the Saints two-goal margin secured FtL followers profit with a similar alternate line bet that was offered at +360. We continue to fade Wolves and believe that the alternate line presents unique value compared to other plays available.
The Southampton -1 play at +350 provides distinct value because we estimate Southampton wins by more than one goal in similarly situated matches at a rate between 22.5% - 26.75%. Considering an implied probability of 18.2% (based on -1.5 price of +450 available at time we placed bet), this play provides an estimated 4.3% - 8.55% edge.
Tactically, Che Adams should be fully fit after a rest last time out. Southampton’s attack suddenly becomes dynamic now that key players are returning to fitness. Namely, James Ward-Prowse will pick the passes while Oreo Romeo dusts up defensively. Danny Ings and Che Adams will link at the front while the pacy Moussa Djenepo and Stuart Armstrong should patrol the flanks.
We have garnered $.10 (or .1u) of closing value since posting the play a day ago on our Twitter page. The current best available price of +340 only present at Pinnacle coupled with high price variation amongst oddsmakers comparatively factors lead us to believe we will gain further closing line value as game time approaches.
Getafe vs. Real Sociedad | La Liga | 8:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad PK @ -139 | .45u
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad ML @ +143 | .2u
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad -1 @ +350 | .35u
Real Sociedad, featuring a returning to fitness David Silva, visits Coliseum Alfonso Perez on Sunday. Getafe sits 13th in the table at a -11 goal difference while Real Sociedad places 6th at +16 goal difference in the Spanish top-flight.
El Mago’s inclusion off the bench at the week took limited to foresight to predict. Playing early has provided substantial value. Situations where key players are coming off injury can present value opportunities and risk. We were on the right side with this one, so here is to cashing a boatload of closing line value. Best prices now available for Real Sociedad plays, respectively: -215, +110, +258.
You read that right: a combined $2.01 (or 2.01u) of closing line value on these three plays. Eight of Real Sociedad’s thirteen triumphs in all competitions this season have come via more than one goal.
We estimate our desired outcomes occur at between 4.25% - 9% higher clips than the draw no bet price of -139 and alternate line price of +350 suggest at implied probabilities of 58.2% and 22.2%, respectively. The ML play at +143 provides an edge between 3% - 3.75% according to our estimations. The edge discrepancy between plays is also evidenced by the line movement. Unit placement is crucial.
Sampdoria vs. Fiorentina | Serie A | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Sampdoria/Fiorentina o2.5 @ -109 | .3u
This play is up for the taking at MarathonBet and Pinnacle.
We estimate three goals are scored in this match about 55% of the time. Considering an implied probability of 52.2%, the o2.5 play - at a price of -109 - provides an approximate 2% edge. We keep our stakes low here, accordingly.
If you have not played yet, you might want to lay off, contemplating the low edge and a tactical factor. Franck Ribery went down last time out. Although he is 37, Fiorentina produces more goals when he is on the pitch. His exclusion is a blow to our cause despite the lines not reflecting so to this point.
Metz vs. Racing Strasbourg | Ligue One | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Metz PK @ +116 | .45u
THE PLAY: Metz ML @ +209 | .3u
THE PLAY: Metz -1 @ +509 | .3u
At 16th in the Ligue One table, Racing Strasbourg travels to quietly streaking 7th place Metz who has won three of its past five attempts in the French first division. It was just under a month ago that Frederic Antonetti’s side took three points from mighty Lyon.
While we have garnered $.05 (or .5u) - $.15 (or .15u) of closing line value on the PK and ML plays, we will not fret if true movement evades us before game time.
We estimate Metz wins 34.75% - 37% of contests in similar conditions, against similar opponents. Consequently, the ML price of +209 provides a value edge of approximately 3.75% at an implied probability of 32.4%.
We prefer the PK line security for higher unit plays because of Metz’ above league average tendency to draw in Ligue One. Additionally, the alternate line may provide distinct value as four of Racing Strasbourg’s past five losses in all competitions have come by a two-goal or higher margin.
Real Madrid vs. Valencia | La Liga | 10:15 am ET
THE PLAY: Valencia DC @ +220 | .25u
THE PLAY: Valencia PK @ +575 | .25u
We, unfortunately, can not calculate our estimated actual value on this play because of a statistical/technological error. Our aggregated book history failed to track and download Valencia’s ML price history data, so we can not input timed line movement comparisons into our system.
Las Vegas, however, has admitted the value that these plays present. The Valencia PK price has shortened from +575 to +500 while the best price now available for the double chance is +207.
While we expect the double chance line to shorten considerably by off time, we have garnered a whopping $.75 (or .75u) of closing line value on the draw no bet line, regardless. These bets have ample time to charge further.
LOSC Lille vs. Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue One | 11:00 am ET
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille win to nil @ +156 | .4u
This play is currently available for a marginally shorter price of +154. If you have followed FtL picks this season, then you know Lille has produced profit for us. We go back to the well here.
We have also been banging on all season about Renato Sanches, but why not mention him again here? World-class quality there, but consistency would be the next step.
Christophe Galtier’s side has shutout its past five opponents in all competitions in route to wins. Lille boasts the joint top-rated defense (goals allowed) in Ligue One while Racing Strasbourg’s previous five losses in all competitions have come without the squad scoring a single goal.
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga | Noon ET
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg win to nil @ +415 | .25u
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg -1 @ +339 | .25u
The win to nil price has shortened marginally since we played. Therefore, we have gained $.15 (or .15u) of closing line value. This is another well that is dark and scary, but we have jumped in a time or two (or five) this season, and miraculously, Wolfsburg has provided a ladder that is lined with sacks of cash for us to grab as we climb out.
80% of Wolfsburg’s previous ten victories in all competitions are shutout wins. Although Borussia Monchengladbach have individual players who can burn Wolfsburg going forward, these odds are too long for us not to sprinkle.
We will also dabble in the alternate line at a price of +339 available at Pinnacle. More of a form play with this latter bet.
Everton vs. Fulham | Premier League | 2:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Everton ML @ -132 | .3u
THE PLAY: Everton -1 @ +136 | .35u
We mentioned earlier that playing early involves calculated, volatile risks and rewards. You can look up and down this card and find the benefit of that volatility. Here, the volatility has turned against us.
We have lost an approximated $1.15 (or 1.15u) of closing value with this selection. Obviously, we did not predict Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s injury when we placed the bet. Luckily, we have only risked .746u on these bets. Additionally, the rest of this card and our out-standing value on all plays at the Twitter page more than statistically make up for this play and any other closing line value duds that we may produce. Our positive closing line value hit rate is over 70% on all plays in 2021, so that should not be a concern (although negative volatility spells will occur inevitably).
Southampton -1 @ +350 | .5u
Real Sociedad PK @ -139 | .45u
Real Sociedad ML @ +143 | .2u
Real Sociedad -1 @ +350 | .35u
Sampdoria/Fiorentina o2.5 @ -109 | .3u
Metz PK @ +116 | .45u
Metz ML @ +290 | .3u
Metz -1 @ +290 | .3u
Valencia DC @ +220 | .25u
Valencia PK @ +575 | .25u
LOSC Lille win to nil @ +156 | .4u
VfL Wolfsburg win to nil @ +415 | .25u
VfL Wolfsburg -1 @ +339 | .25u
Everton ML @ -132 | .3u
Everton -1 @ +136 | .35u
*To stay abreast on updates to plays, closing line value updates, results spreadsheets, and all Feinting the Line content, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter.