Feinting the Line's Saturday morning soccer picks: Leicester City vs Liverpool and Granada vs Atletico Madrid
Leicester City v. Liverpool, Premier League, 7:30 am EST. Granada v. Atletico Madrid, La Liga, 8:00 am EST
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Leicester City v. Liverpool | Premier League | 7:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Leicester City PK @ +155 | .3u
THE PLAY: Leicester City ML @ +275 | .25u
THE PLAY: Leicester City -1 @ +550 | .25u
While the alternate line and draw no bet prices are still available, bet365 is no longer offering the Leicester City ML @ +275. Best price now available for the ML is now MarathonBet at +256. Therefore, we have gained $.19 (or .19u) closing line value on the ML.
Hopefully we get some more significant movement here as game time approaches. If not, however, we are convinced that these plays provide value. We estimate Leicester City wins games of a similar stature between 28.75% - 32% of the time. At an implied probability of 26.7%, the ML play at +275 provides about a 2% - 5% edge for our desired outcome.
Tactically, the inclusions of Jamie Vardy and (somehow more importantly) Wilfred Ndidi in the midweek FA Cup win against Brighton are huge for our cause. Ndidi and Vardy should be full go at the weekend after sixty minutes of injury-free return to the pitch. Ndidi changes the dynamic of Brendan Rodgers’ side. His security allows Youri Tielemans to step forward and pick the telling pass (his best attribute). Leicester City’s ceiling is simply much higher when Ndidi plays. With no Fabinho for Liverpool, Leicester City has a chance to dominate an off-form middle of the park for Liverpool.
Granada v. Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 8:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Granada/Atletico Madrid o2 @ -130 | .3u
THE PLAY: Atletico Madrid ML @ -127 | .4u
Slightly more favorable prices are now available for these plays. We, however, remain confident in the value they provide.
We estimate similarly situated matches produce three goals at near a coin-flip rate. The o2 line, with the push option, provides value. We see value based on the o2.5 line implied probability of 40% (based on best ML price of +150 at time we took bet) considering we expect this desired outcome to occur at a rate marginally under 50%. We choose the safety of the juicy o2 line as opposed to a higher payout considering these squads’ matches have produced at least two goals at a 10% higher rate than the average La Liga side. If you waited to take these plays, a congratulations on foresight is in order considering the price has dropped about $.08 on over/under plays.
Atletico Madrid’s 90’ concession to Celta Vigo ripped our hearts out and handed our mid-week La Liga ML investment straight to the bookies. We expect Atletico Madrid to get back on track here against a solid Granada side. Diego Simeone will not have been happy to drop points so late on.
We believe a ML price of -127 provides value at an implied probability of 55.9% considering we estimate Cholo’s side is victorious in similarly situated matches at a 2.25%-3.5% higher clip than that price suggests.
Leicester City PK @ +155 | .3u
Leicester City ML @ +275 | .25u
Leicester City -1 @ +550 | .25u
Granada/Atletico Madrid o2 @ -130 | .3u
Atletico Madrid ML @ -127 | .4u