Sunday picks from Feinting the Line: Rennes vs Lille, Parma vs Sampdoria, Atletico Madrid vs Valencia, & more
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Rennes vs. Lille | Ligue 1
THE PLAY: Rennes/Lille o2 @ -112 | .4u
THE PLAY: Rennes/Lille o2.5 @ +158 | .2u
THE PLAY: Lille PK @ -110 | .45u
THE PLAY: Lille ML @ +175 | .35u
THE PLAY: Lille -1 @ +413 | .4u
Renato Sanches is back in the Lille squad that visits Roazhon Park on Sunday. Rennes has found its form over its past seven Ligue 1 matchdays with five wins against two draws and no defeats. However, the advanced statistics and analytics tend to show Rennes has garnered its successful league results from sides sitting below its position in the table. Hopefully Sanches is fit enough to return to the starting lineup, but we like these value plays regardless of whether Christophe Galtier has the option to call upon his star’s services from the off tomorrow or not.
We estimate three goals to occur in this match about 54% of the time; therefore, the o2 price provides great value considering the implied probability and safety of a push option with that line.
Parma vs. Sampdoria | Serie A
THE PLAY: Parma/Sampdoria o2.5 @ +105 | .3u
This o2.5 play price has increased to a best price of -106 on Pinnacle. Considering this is an o/u bet and the original line was within $.50 (or .5u) of even money (+100), the $.11 (or .11u) closing line value we captured since posting the play to Twitter a few days ago is significant.
Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia | La Liga
THE PLAY: Valencia Double Chance @ +200 | .2u
THE PLAY: Valencia ML @ +760 | .2u
Diego Simeone’s league-leading Atletico Madrid has also been the most consistent side in La Liga all season. Valencia, well…let us just say Valencia has not been the most consistent side in La Liga this season. Here, however, we fire at the hip and back the dog.
Cholo’s squad displayed some fatigue in a comeback win against Eibar midweek where Atleti had to muster every ounce of might to get over the line. Valencia provides marginal value in these spots at implied probabilities of 33.3% (Double Chance) and 11.6% (ML) considering we estimate a Valencia win under this match’s parameters hits at around 14% while a Valencia tie or win hits at around 37%.
Lazio vs. Sassuolo | Serie A
THE PLAY: Sassuolo Double Chance @ +125 | .125u
THE PLAY: Sassuolo PK @ +277 | .5u
THE PLAY: Sassuolo ML @ +404 | .125u
Sassuolo sits one point behind Lazio at eighth in the Serie A table. Having won only one less game than its Simone Inghazi-led opponents, we are backing Sassuolo in a couple of value plays despite Lazio’s recent run of form. In our estimation, Sassuolo secures three points in similarly-situated fixtures well over the implied hit-rate of 19.8% (on ML price of +404).
Rennes/Lille o2 @ -112 | .4u
Rennes/Lille o2.5 @ +158 | .2u
Lille PK @ -110 | .45u
Lille ML @ +175 | .35u
Lille -1 @ +413 | .4u
Parma/Sampdoria o2.5 @ +105 | .3u
Valencia Double Chance @ +200 | .2u
Valencia ML @ +760 | .2u
Sassuolo Double Chance @ +125 | .125u
Sassuolo PK @ +277 | .5u
Sassuolo ML @ +404 | .125u
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