Feinting the Line soccer picks for Saturday: Matches in Serie A, Ligue 1, Bundesliga
AC Milan v. Atalanta, AS Monaco v. Olympique Marseille, Hertha Berlin v. Werder Bremen
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AC Milan v. Atalanta | Serie A
THE PLAY: AC Milan/Atalanta PK @ +135 | .4u
THE PLAY: AC Milan/Atalanta ML @ +212 | .6u
THE PLAY: AC Milan/Atalanta -1 @ +430 | .5u
Atlanta is coming off a short two days rest while Stefano Pioli’s men have a five day buffer to recover after Monday’s win against Cagliari. Although the Rosseneri has significant injury and COVID-19 absences, Rafael Leao will return to lead the line with Zlatan Ibrahimovic. We expect Pioli’s 4-2-3-1 formation to clog the middle of the park. Led by Frank Kessie and up a man in the midfield, the midfield department should be Milan’s strong suit against this Atalanta side who will play a double pivot with five at the back (counting the wingbacks; three without wingbacks).
Since posting these plays on our Twitter page four days ago, the best prices on these plays have risen to the following numbers which are now available at Pinnacle: PK @ +106, ML @ +180, and -1 @ +369. In these three plays combined we snatched a whopping $1.21 (or 1.21u) of closing line value (closing line value calculated using strict line value without regard to units played per bet). Here is to cashing all that value in on a Saturday.
AS Monaco v. Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1
THE PLAY: AS Monaco/Olympique Marseille o2.5 @ -117 | .45u
THE PLAY: AS Monaco/Olympique Marseille 1H o1 @ -126 | .225u
THE PLAY: AS Monaco/Olympique Marseille 1H o1.5 @ +179 | .225u
The o2.5 play is still available at a price of -117 on MarathonBet. The 1H o1 and 1H o1.5 best prices available (Pinnacle) have risen marginally to -122 and +184 respectively, so the oddsmakers see at least marginal value on our first half plays here.
AS Monaco has been scoring goals for fun lately with a whopping goal output of 14 in its past four (all league games). Olympique Marseille has looked extremely shaky at the back recently with three losses on the hop, but can provide a threat going forward when its three-pronged attack is clicking. Statistically, we estimate this matchup’s o2.5 hits about 59% of the time; therefore, at an implied probability of 53.9%, the o2.5 @ -117 play provides value. Additionally, the recent form of these two teams causes me to trust this bet a little more than that 59% estimated hit rate.
Hertha Berlin v. Werder Bremen | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: Hertha Berlin/Werder Bremen PK @ +153 | .4u
THE PLAY: Hertha Berlin/Werder Bremen ML @ +248 | .4u
THE PLAY: Hertha Berlin/Werder Bremen -1 @ +525 | .4u
The line movement on this game has been strange as most of these prices are available currently. Bookies are even offering the ML and alternate line a bit cheaper now. We believe the Double Chance is a solid shout if anyone prefers a safer bet as well. That play is available for the impressive price of -129 on Pinnacle.
Werder Bremen is a single point higher than Hertha Berlin in the Bundesliga standings. Hertha Berlin, however, enters this match in awful form, having won only one of its previous seven Bundesliga appearances. Here, we expect about an even matchup, so Werder Bremen provides excellent value at these prices. Although the line movement has bewildered us, it will not scare us away.
AC Milan/Atalanta PK @ +135 | .4u
AC Milan/Atalanta ML @ +212 | .6u
AC Milan/Atalanta -1 @ +430 | .5u
AS Monaco/Olympique Marseille o2.5 @ -117 | .45u
AS Monaco/Olympique Marseille 1H o1 @ -126 | .225u
AS Monaco/Olympique Marseille 1H o1.5 @ +179 | .225u
Hertha Berlin/Werder Bremen PK @ +153 | .4u
Hertha Berlin/Werder Bremen ML @ +248 | .4u
Hertha Berlin/Werder Bremen -1 @ +525 | .4u
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