Feinting the Line has 4 Tuesday soccer picks for Bundesliga, La Liga, and the Premier League with 8 plays
West Ham v. West Brom, 1 pm ET; Mainz v. VfL Wolfsburg, 2:30 pm ET; Leicester City v. Chelsea, 3:15 pm ET; Deportivo Alaves v. Sevilla, 3:30 pm ET
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West Ham v. West Brom | Premier League
THE PLAY: Parlay West Ham ML & BTTS No & Michail Antonio>Robert Snodgrass shots @ +225 | .15u
THE PLAY: Parlay West Ham ML & BTTS No & Michail Antonio>Robert Snodgrass shots & Jake Livermore at least one card @ +1250 | .125u
Backing David Moyes side involves less angst when talisman Michail Antonio is in the team. It is likely he creates or finishes a crucial chance if West Ham wins. West Ham has not conceded in four times out. The Jake Livermore add is a punt, but he has already been suspended this year from a red card. Livermore has three cards to his name in eleven matches of Premier League action this season. However, Livermore has not been booked in three starts since the red card against Aston Villa last month. He either learned his lesson, or he is due. We punt for the latter.
Mainz v. VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg ML @ +100 | 1u
Hopefully you rode this play when we sent it out over 96 hours ago on our Twitter page. The prices available are a bit juicier now with Pinnacle being the cheapest readily available book that we can find @ -117 for this bet. The play is to fade relegation-bound Mainz. Although the side picked up a point last time out against Borussia Dortmund, we expect Wolfsburg to return to winning form after its recent rusty patch. Seeing value from two perspectives here: firstly, Wolfsburg wins this match more than every other time out; also, Mainz has seen low xG successes in recent results while Wolfsburg has faced solid competition as of late. The combination of preceding factors could lead to a recency bias in favor of Mainz that the line reflects and/or reflected before line movement. This line could become even more expensive as game time approaches, adding to our current $.17 cents (or .17u) closing line value.
Leicester City v. Chelsea | Premier League
THE PLAY: Leicester City PK @ +118 | .05u
THE PLAY: Leicester City ML @ +204 | .05u
THE PLAY: Leicester City -1 @ +430 | .15u
We back Brendan Rodgers’ side with his preferred XI on current form. Youri Tielemans has been sublime lately in the middle of the park. Fofana and Evans look a force at the back while possessing true ball-playing center half quality. The alternate line @ +430 provides the most value out of these small stakes, form plays.
Deportivo Alaves v. Sevilla | La Liga
THE PLAY: Sevilla ML @ -108 | 1u
THE PLAY: Sevilla to win to nil @ +195 | .25u
Early bird got the worm, here (Early play for juice we don’t lay?). We have a nice closing line value trend appearing with today’s preliminary plays. The Sevilla ML now sits $.19 (or .19u) cents higher @-137 on Pinnacle. Similarly, the Sevilla shutout win, win to nil, or BTTS No/ML parlay best price available has risen to +170 at Pinnacle displaying the value of that play. Sevilla plays a stingy brand of football while Deportivo Alaves has not won in its last three La Liga appearances. We hope to cash two plus expected value and closing line value plays through the efforts of Julen Lopetegui’s men.
VfL Wolfsburg ML @ +100 | 1u
Sevilla ML @ -108 | 1u
Sevilla to win to nil @ +195 | .25u
Parlay West Ham ML & BTTS No & Michail Antonio > Robert Snodgrass shots @ +225 | .15u
Parlay West Ham ML & BTTS No & Michail Antonio > Robert Snodgrass shots & Jake Livermore at least one card @ +1250 | .125u
Leicester City PK @ +118 | .05u
Leicester City ML @ +204 | .05u
Leicester City -1 @ +430 | .15u
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