2025 is off to a decent start for our NFL Anytime TD props, as we are sitting at 13-18 for a profit of 2.11 units. However, there are more than a few tears in our beers after a dreadful 1-5 performance in Week 5. We need a bounce back in the worst kind of way.
Let's find out what Week 6 will hold. Our staff gives out their best Anytime Touchdown props below. Best of luck, folks! Let's get into it!
AZ at IND - 1:00 PM EDT
Okay, let’s get this out of the way... I’m 0 - 5 on the season. I’ve basically become the “fade me” guy in your group chat. I'm so cold, (HOW COLD ARE YOU)? I'm so cold, I make the Yankees' offense look hot. But it's the weekend, so it's time for another pick, and this week, I’m putting $ on a guy who’s due for the end zone and built for this matchup, Josh Downs.
Downs isn’t new to this. Year three, steady hands, clear eyes, reliable in the slot. He’s been quietly racking up catches while the touchdowns have stubbornly stayed away. Through five weeks, he’s sitting on 20 grabs for 175 yards and zero TDs, despite seeing consistent volume and a near 74% catch rate.
The Colts take on an Arizona defense that doesn't scare me. They have been getting diced up by slot receivers all season. They’re bottom-tier in yards and catches allowed to that position. Their top nickel, Garrett Williams, is on IR. They are giving up space like it's April 2020. (That's a social distancing joke).
Downs runs roughly 83% of his routes from the slot, which is exactly where the Cards are bleeding. And Indy’s offense, led by Daniel Jones, who is humming on third-down conversions, meaning reps and looks on these drives. I might be 0–5. I might be Downs, but I'm not out. And like Downs, I’m due.
CLE at PIT - 1:00 PM EDT
Getting off of my QB kick because obviously it ain't working. But I'm still sticking with plus money picks. This week, I’m backing DK Metcalf at +170 for an anytime touchdown because the sheer volume, connection, and matchup all point to him finding the end zone at some point in the 60 minutes. He already has 3 receiving TDs this season and is clearly Rodgers’ go-to guy with 22 targets and 261 yards through 4 games.
Sure, the Browns might look good on paper when it comes to limiting yards, but that hasn’t stopped teams from getting into the end zone. They’ve allowed 13 total touchdowns already, and 10 of those have come through the air. That’s a problem when you’re facing a physical red-zone beast like Metcalf, who can win jump balls and break tackles after the catch for big yardage.
In a game where the running lanes might be tight, Rodgers is going to lean on what’s working so far, and right now, that’s #14. At +170, I like the price, and I like the spot. This is a solid plus money pick that is going to hit this weekend.
DET at KC - 8:20 PM EDT
Bet365 may be the most generous book in history for TD props. If they are available in your state, please sign up with them. We're getting 40 cents better than the market on this one, as most shops are dealing +105 for this bad boy. Line value doesn't guarantee winners, but it's one of the keys to winning long-term in this crazy racket we all know and love.
St. Brown was on the injury report earlier this week with a sore wrist, but he has since been taken off it as of Friday morning. With a game total in the 52 to 53 range, there should be plenty of TDs in this one. St Brown remains Jared Goff's favorite target when the Lions get into the red zone.
Amon-Ra has scored TDs in 3 of his 5 games this season, and he's already racked up 6 total TDs. He should get the bulk of his snaps against Chamarri Conner, who ranks just 64th out of 81 nickelbacks in coverage. Good luck!
CHI at WSH - 8:15 PM EDT (Monday)
As a diehard Michigan fan, I'm going with a heart pick this week in Colston Loveland. However, if you think this heart pick has no value, you'd be mistaken. Loveland is a beast at 6'6" and 241 pounds.
The dude is a matchup nightmare for any linebacker or safety who tries to cover him. The Commanders have done a poor job of defending the pass this year, so we have that working for us as well.
Washington ranks just 28th in yards per pass allowed. This sets up perfectly for Loveland's breakout game. Give me all that plus money!
CLE at PIT - 1:00 PM EDT
Well, that’s two misses in a row, so I figure it's best to go for broke and aim high. That’s why I've got my eyes on David Njoku this week. Not only is he poised to have a big game against the Steelers, but he’s also one of the only reliable targets on the Browns. Given the limited pass catchers on their roster, Njoku might just be their second-best receiving option.
The most important part of this line isn’t Njoku, though; it’s Dillon Gabriel. Since he took over last week, Njoku’s targets noticeably increased, jumping from 5 to 9 against the Vikings, catching 6 for 67 yards and a TD. Even the Browns’ other TE, Harold Fannin Jr., earned a decent number of targets and scored a TD as well. That just goes to show, old check-down Gabriel is still there. Since his days at Oregon, Gabriel has often looked to check down to big receivers like Njoku. As a QB who’s 5’11”, that’s just part of the game.
Going against the Steelers should only make that more apparent. The Steelers have been struggling a bit against tight ends this year. They've allowed 250 yards and 3 touchdowns to TEs, ranking near the worst in the league. Given the tough, grind-it-out style of the Browns' offense, Njoku is likely to see plenty of action and be targeted often.
Plus, adding Quinshon Judkins into the mix brought even more spark to the Browns’ offense last week. He ran for 110 yards and added 18 more through the air, giving the Browns a dependable back to kickstart the offense and get them into the red zone. That’s all Njoku needs to have a real chance at grabbing a TD.
DAL at CAR- 1:00 PM EDT
Unfortunately, I have to add a 1 in the loss column now. Sitting at 5-1 isn't bad considering the difficulty of hitting this prop. Anyway, let's move on to our guy Tet. Now this one has a little bit of a personal connection, being that he is on my fantasy squad, as a few were before, and I really need a win this week badly.
Tet has been having quite a nice year, especially for a rookie. Clearly emerged as Young's favorite target. Currently sitting at 351 receiving yards on 24 receptions. Those aren't the stats I'm too concerned with. What I like the most is his % of team targets, which is at 22.1% with a drop rate of only 4.7%. The kid is getting targeted a ton throughout the games and isn't dropping passes, which is amazing for us.
Now, the other part of my breakdown that's important and has been a running theme and will be for the rest of the year is to attack the bad defenses!! The Cowboys' secondary is Swiss cheese. I'll give it to them; they are winning games, but they are all slugfests with a ton of scoring.
That trend will continue this week for sure, receivers eat the defense alive, and our boy Tet will for sure. He hasn't crossed the pylon yet in his young career, and this weekend will be the time for him to do it! Let's get back in the W column in both fantasy and anytime TDS! Enjoy the games!!
CHI at WSH - 8:15 PM EDT (Monday)
Yes, your resident Bears meatball is back. After a week off and with the Cubs in the middle of a playoff run, I found a little time to take a gander at this weekend's Monday Night matchup.
Now, we all remember the infamous Hail Mary that derailed the Bears' season and catapulted Jayden Daniels to ROY status. I'm willing to guarantee the Bears remember it, and Tyrique Stephenson won't be taunting the fans when he should be in the end zone. Also, think BJ is smart enough to use a timeout to set up things better, but I digress. Let's go.
The Commanders aren't giving up a ton of yards through the air, but 8/11 of the touchdowns they've given up this year have been through the air. I like Swift as a touchdown scoring option in both the pass and run games. He's shown this year that he can still make guys miss, and when he gets space in the open field, he has the jets to outrun most.
Outside of the first half against Maxx Crosby, the new OL seems to be getting better. With Deebo and McLaurin both not practicing this week due to various injuries, and Daniels coming back from a knee injury, I like the Bears to get up, run the rock, and avoid a Hail Mary.
BONUS CUBS MEATBALL - P.C.A. WILL hit a HR in Game 5