The final week of the NFL season is here, and we’ll look to navigate a more difficult than usual slate. The Week 18 topics of conversation are always, motivations, resting, and contract incentives.
It can be difficult to get a handle on what teams will do during the games, so unless you are operating with non-public information, I’d suggest limiting your bets. I’m going to look at a couple of playoff scenarios here and try to find some value.
The NFL has scheduled this out nicely for us to make each game more consequential than the previous. We’ll start on Saturday with the Ravens hosting the Browns at 4:30 pm EST.
The Ravens just need to win this game to clinch the division. The Ravens are a whopping 20-point favorite across the board which just feels wrong. That being said, I think Harbaugh and the Ravens do their best to make this a blowout by the end of the first half and then rest his starters for the remainder of the game.
The books are looking to protect themselves here, as they’ve lined Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson rushing yards near their regular figures but are not offering lines on the likes of Rasheen Ali or Keaton Mitchel. The Browns are planning to play both QBs but are starting Bailey Zappe, who is an upgrade over DTR. This keeps me off laying a massive number with Baltimore 1H.
So, assuming the Ravens win the early game, the Steelers will host the Bengals. The Bengals are currently 2-point favorites and are incentivized to win this game, despite needing both Miami and Denver to lose on Sunday.
The Steelers then find themselves in an interesting predicament where they will need to win this game in order to lock up the 5 seed. If they lose the Chargers are now incentivized to win their game against the Raiders on Sunday. So depending on the side you like in this game, changes how you might want to approach it.
The Bengals injury report for this game hasn’t looked great as they are still banged up on the offensive line and both RB Chase Brown and WR Tee Higgins are nursing injuries. Higgins didn’t seem to be bothered by the injury last week.
If you are interested in betting on the Steelers, I’d bet the Steelers ML and parlay with the Raiders ML. The current line for that game is Chargers -4.5, which mostly signifies that books are going to make a big move once the Saturday slate is finished. If the Steelers win, the Chargers will likely rest Herbert and their starters as they’ll be locked into the 6 seed.
On the other side, you can bet the Bengals ML and parlay with Chargers -4.5. This line will certainly just out to 7 or beyond should the Bengals win. You’ll then have an opportunity to hedge out or guarantee profits.
Two other games I like on Sunday:
I’m ok laying -14 here with Tampa Bay. It’s win and get in for this Bucs team facing a hapless Saints offense. I think we see a result similar to Week 17, leaving no questions asked and a dominant performance out of the Bucs.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucs pull Baker and starters a little bit early in this game but given that the Falcons are playing in the same window, they have every incentive to put the Saints away. I’ll be betting both the 1H and Full Game for this game.
Are we so sure CJ Stroud isn’t going to play in this one? The Texans have no incentive to win as they are locked in the four seed, but the Titans certainly have every incentive to lose. Losing this game could, at best, give them the #2 pick. With a cluster of teams at 3 wins, I don’t think the Titans will really want to drop too far back.
The Titans are planning to play both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis. If that isn’t enough signal that they are done with Levis and will look for a QB in this draft, I don’t know what else is. While I don’t expect that CJ Stroud and starters would play the whole game, if they did play, the commentary this week has seemed like he could suit up to get some reps in for an offense that has looked lost for much of 2024.
The line clearly implies that he’s out, so there would be immediate line value if he’s announced in. However, even if Stroud is out, are we sure that Davis Mills isn’t the best QB out of the bunch? (Mills/Rudolph/Levis). I’m not too comfortable making the Titans the favorite in a game that they very much should lose. I'm Betting Houston in the First Half and on the moneyline small.