The Los Angeles Chargers are taking on the New England Patriots this Saturday in Foxborough. The Chargers are looking to better their playoff positioning, while the Pat's hopes are long gone for making the playoffs, but they’ll do what they can to spoil the hopes of the Chargers.
With both teams having vastly different trajectories this season, the Chargers come in as clear favorites against a struggling Patriots squad. That doesn’t mean there aren’t bets to be made on this Saturday showdown.
The Chargers (9-6) have been cruising toward the playoffs for a while, holding the second AFC wild-card spot. They could still lose their spot as a WC, but it would be a long shot.
After bouncing back from a tough loss to Tampa Bay with a gritty win over Denver, they’ve now won 6 of their last 9 games showing that they can heat up when it matters the most. Meanwhile, the Patriots (3-12) have endured a disastrous campaign all season long. They lost 5 straight and allowed over 24 points in each of their last 5 games which is simply abysmal.
Los Angeles boasts a top-tier defense that ranks 2nd in points allowed per game at 18.3 and a halfway respectable 16th in yards allowed. This will likely spell trouble for a New England offense that sits dead last in passing yards per game at just 178.5 and 30th in points scored per game at 17.3.
Many had high hopes for rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who has shown some promise, but against the Chargers’ 7th-ranked pass rush, which has recorded 41 sacks this season, he’s in for a tough test later today.
The Chargers also hold a bit of an edge on offense. While their numbers are middle-of-the-pack, their 21.9 points per game ranks them 16th and Justin Herbert’s steady presence under center gives them a fairly decisive advantage over a Patriots defense that's allowed 30 or more points twice in their last 5 games.
This game feels like it’s the Chargers to lose, but we’re not expecting that at all.
Herbert has thrown for over 3,200 yards this season. That’s not bad considering he’s spreading the ball effectively to top receivers like Ladd McConkey, who leads the team with a whopping 960 receiving yards.
The Chargers’ offense also benefits from their star RB J.K. Dobbins in the backfield, who has amassed 766 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. Against a Pats defense struggling to stop both the run and the pass, we’re expecting LA to find plenty of opportunities to score in this game.
As we mentioned, Drake Maye has flashed potential. However, his 14 touchdowns against 10 interceptions just go to show the inconsistency typical of a rookie. He needs some work, but not all hope is lost. It’s just not looking like it’s going to be this season.
The Patriots’ lack of explosive playmakers is as clear as day, with Hunter Henry leading the receiving corps at just 674 yards and 2 TDs. Rhamondre Stevenson, though having a fairly productive season with 800 rushing yards and 7 TDs, faces a stiff test against the Chargers’ solid defensive front.
The Patriots’ defense could again be without Jabrill Peppers. That will leave their secondary even more vulnerable against a Chargers team that is already looking to capitalize on it.
On the Chargers’ side, Gus Edwards and Cam Hart are questionable, but we’re not so sure that their absence wouldn’t significantly alter LA's game plan.
The Chargers are clearly going to dominate this matchup.
They have the better QB, and a more reliable defense, and are playing with playoff implications at the forefront of their mind. The Patriots, on the other hand, are reeling with nothing but pride left to play for and that’s not saying too much. We hate to say it, but they might be playing for draft positioning.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Chargers 27, Patriots 13.
Best Bet: Chargers -4
With extra rest and a massive talent advantage, taking the Chargers to cover the 4-point spread is obviously a much smarter bet here. The Patriots’ offense simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace, and their defense has too many gaps to exploit. We expect the Chargers to get the job done without missing a beat.