The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions meet in a high-stakes NFC North showdown on Thursday Night Football as both teams are vying for post-season positioning.
With both teams riding big performances and playoff aspirations, this Week 14 matchup is going to be nothing less than a spectacle.
The Lions, leading the division with an 11-1 record, are 3.5-point favorites against the 9-3 Packers as they head into this rematch for the ages.
The Lions are coming into tonight’s matchup as -3.5 favorites, with the over/under set at 51.5 points. That total is on the higher end which means the bookmakers are thinking this might be a shootout between the 2 offenses.
Detroit is also priced at -180 on the moneyline, while the Packers are +150 underdogs. There’s no surprise here as the Lions are firing on all cylinders and it wasn’t until recently that the Packers started clicking.
Even more notably, the Lions have dominated ATS this season with a 9-3 record. This includes an impressive 6-0 at home. On top of that, Green Bay sits at 6-6 ATS and has shown quite a bit of resilience on the road, boasting a 4-1 record.
With the odds tilting in favor of the Lions, can they live up to the hype?
The Lions’ offense has been nothing short of dominant. They’re averaging an NFL-best 31.9 points per game which is the best we’ve seen since the Ravens hit that mark in 2019.
With Jared Goff under center, Detroit’s passing game remains sharp as a tack, but their real strength lies in their balanced attack between the ground and the air.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery lead a backfield that ranks 4th in rushing yards. Gibbs has been absolutely electric, rushing for a whopping 973 yards and 10 TDs, while Montgomery adds even more power with 11 rushing TDs.
Defensively they’re just as dominant. Detroit allows just 16.9 points per game which ranks them 2nd in the league. Their defensive line is a force, consistently pressuring opposing QBs and stuffing the run.
Green Bay enters this matchup riding a big 3-game winning streak. This is thanks in large part to Jordan Love’s recent form and some help on the ground by Josh Jacobs.
Love has thrown 20 touchdown passes this season and is coming off a stellar performance with 274 passing yards and 2 touchdowns against Miami on Thanksgiving.
The Packers are averaging a decent 26.5 points per game (8th in the NFL), but their 20 points allowed per game could be trouble against the Lions’ high-powered offense.
The Packers’ rushing game, led by Josh Jacobs complements Love’s efforts. He’s peaking at the right time. He has scored a touchdown in 4 of the Packer's last 5 games and a couple of those were multiple TD games. Will he be enough to break through on the Lion's run defense?
The biggest plague of the Packers is their inconsistent defense. They may struggle to contain Detroit’s dynamic attack. The pass rush hasn’t been able to do much and their secondary can be leaky at times.
Both teams are looking great heading into tonight’s game, but let’s take a look at a few trends each team is showing coming into Week 14.
The Lions have won their last 10 games and are undefeated at home this season.
The Packers have won the first quarter in their last 8 games as underdogs. They’re the underdog for tonight.
Jared Goff has thrown 2+ touchdowns in 11 consecutive home games against NFC North opponents.
Green Bay is 3rd in the league in total offense but faces the Lions’ dominant defense.
This matchup heavily favors the Lions due to their balanced offense, dominant home form, and incredible defense. The Packers have been competitive lately but we think they lack the firepower to keep up with Detroit, especially at Ford Field.
The Lions' ability to control the game on the ground with Gibbs and Montgomery, paired with Goff’s consistency in the air, makes them the clear pick for tonight’s TNF matchup.
This won’t be a blowout as Green Bay’s offense will still get creative and find ways to get into the end zone, but their defense will struggle to keep Detroit’s versatile attack in check.
BettorsInsider Bet: Detroit Lions -3.5
We think that the Lions should cover the spread comfortably. We expect their defense to limit Love’s effectiveness in the air and Jacobs on the ground, while their offense controls the tempo.