Can the Cowboys get back in the win column after losing two straight, or will the Falcons stay hot after winning four of five? We'll answer this question and more in our betting guide for November 3.
Some online sportsbooks opened this line at Dallas -1 back in the summer months. However, that was before the Cowboys defense suffered a whole slew of injuries. The lookahead line moved to Atlanta -2.5 a few days ago and that's where we still sit as of Tuesday afternoon.
We've seen a ton of action on the total for this game. Sharp bettors pounded the opening number of 48.5, but that has been pushed way up to the current number of 52.5 at most shops. That's a big number, but not too surprising with these two subpar defenses.
Things have turned bad for Dallas since they pulled off a nice upset over Pittsburgh back on October 6th. They were blown out by the Lions and fell way too far behind the Niners last week on Sunday Night Football before waking up and making the final score more respectable.
Dak Prescott has thrown for over 1,800 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his 8 interceptions have come at the worst of times for the Cowboys. The former Mississippi State star said that "nobody's shaken up or giving up" after their loss to San Fran. CeeDee Lamb continues to be Prescott's go-to guy, as he's hauled in 45 receptions and 4 touchdowns.
Dallas's defensive metrics are awful, mainly because of the injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Parsons has a chance to play against the Falcons, but he's currently listed as questionable.
Atlanta has won four of its last five games and Kirk Cousins has been slicing up opposing defenses left and right. The former Vikings star is 3rd in the NFL in passing yards with 2,106. His favorite target has been Drake London, who has racked up 525 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns.
The Falcons offense has improved tremendously under Cousins, as they rank 7th in yards per play and 9th in yards per pass. Those are impressive numbers, but this team has to do a better job of scoring touchdowns once they get into the red zone. Atlanta ranks just 22nd in red zone TD percentage.
Atlanta's defense is pretty strong in the secondary, as they rank 6th in yards per pass allowed. Jessie Bates and AJ Terrell have both picked off 2 passes this year. This unit's main weakness is rushing the passer, as they rank dead last in sack rate.
I like getting the key number of 3 in this spot and don't mind paying a little extra juice for it. This is a great bounce-back spot for Dallas. Sure, the losses to San Fran and Detroit were ugly, but I'm not going to downgrade them a ton for losing to two elite teams.
I hate to fade Atlanta, but I think they may be a little fat and happy in this one. They have a nice lead in the division, and something tells me they may have trouble matching Dallas's do or die intensity. I also like that Dallas ranks 8th in strength of schedule and Atlanta ranks just 19th.
My numbers make this game Atlanta -1, even with all of the injuries to the Dallas defense. That's enough value for me to a buyer on Dallas. As Jimmy Johnson lovingly says, "How bout them Cowboys?"
Prediction: Dallas 28 - Atlanta 27