NFL Week 1 Upset Predictions: Our 4 Best Moneyline Bets
Week 1 of the NFL season is just around the corner, with the Ravens and Chiefs opening up the season on Thursday, September 5. One of our favorite methods of betting on the NFL is underdog moneylines.
Did you know that 35% of NFL games end in an upset? If you are able to pick which ones, you can get plus-money value on moneyline bets every week. In this article, we will take a look at our 4 favorite underdog bets from the week 1 slate.
Bonus Bettors Insider Tip: Rather than betting your typical unit, use the plus-money to reduce your bet size and minimize risk.
Featured promotion: Bet $5 on any NFL Week 1 game and get $200 in bonus bets + a free month of NFL+ Premium
Cardinals (+220) vs Bills
While the preseason doesn't always paint a complete picture of a team or player, the Buffalo Bills' offensive struggles are hard to ignore—they've scored just 15 combined points in their two preseason games. With only one week left before the Arizona Cardinals come to town, there are reasons for concern, particularly with Buffalo’s receivers and depth at key positions.
On the other hand, Arizona comes in with nothing to lose. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride headline their receiving group, while a healthy Kyler Murray poses a significant threat to the Bills' defense, especially with his rushing ability inside the red zone.
Despite being on the road, Jonathan Gannon and his team can limit Josh Allen's impact by applying pressure early and often, forcing Buffalo's young receivers to step up in their opener. This is the upset to bet on in Week 1.
Raiders (+130) vs Chargers
Antonio Pierce led the Raiders to a 5-4 record last season before accepting the Head Coaching job for a team that is on a downward trend since Derek Carr’s departure. Gardner Minshew will Quarterback this team for the foreseeable future while Zamir White, Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Davante Adams remain their key weapons.
The Las Vegas defense is key to this opener. That unit allowed just 3.5 PPG during the 1st quarter last season, including just 2.3 PPG in their last three games. Pierce is a defensive-minded coach that won’t give Herbert easy options to get himself into a rhythm.
With Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston two of Justin’s best options in his opening game alongside a new OC and HC, I’m not too confident that this LA team can come out on top against a feisty Raiders defense.
Commanders (+160) vs Buccaneers
Jayden Daniels faces Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in his first NFL game. We are backing Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury in this game due to his Week 1 track record with dual-threat QBs. With the Cardinals as their Head Coach during opening weeks from 2019-2022, here’s the result and points scored:
2019: 27-27 T vs Lions
2020: 24-20 W vs 49ers
2021: 38-13 W vs Titans
2022: 21-44 L vs Chiefs
Kingsbury may not become a Head Coach again in the National Football League but he is an offensive guru who knows how to scheme his Quarterback into a win, especially in opening week when defenses are still figuring Quarterbacks out.
Rams (+154) vs Lions
The Lions squeaked out a Wild Card victory against the Rams last postseason at home behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra, and Goff’s consistency. However, we are looking for McVay to get his revenge on Dan Campbell in this Week 1 marquee matchup.
The Rams are bringing a fully healthy Cooper Kupp back into the mix, while Blake Corum will certainly provide a different look for this Rams offense similar to how Montgomery and Gibbs provide trouble for opposing teams in Detroit.
With the Wild Card game ending in a toss-up, this game could go either way but I’m looking for Stafford to get his long-awaited win in Ford Field with Los Angeles behind a massive Cooper Kupp game that reasserts him as a top WR in the league.