Mims' Thursday Night Football Picks: Broncos vs Chiefs, Isiah Pacheco prop bet, over/under, point spread

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos square off on Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs are favored by 10.5 and the total is 47.5 The money line is Kansas City  –600 and Broncos +430.  Kansas City   is the home team.

The Records: Chiefs are 4-1 for the season and 3-2 against the spread. Broncos are 1-4 for the season and 0-4-1 ATS.

The line movement: The game opened at Chiefs -10.5  and 51.

Coaching Match Up: Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid over Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton. Payton does not lose many coaching match ups. Reid gets the edge for having two successful programs in Philadelphia and Kansas City.

Quarterback: Chiefs Patrick Mahomes over Broncos Russell Wilson. Wilson is on the decline as a starting QB. His overall body of work merits consideration for the Hall of Fame. Mahomes is a Hall of Famer right now and approaching the apex of his career. Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL right now.

Player Props- Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco over 73.5 yards rushing. The price is -117. Pacheco has gone over his projected total in his last two games. He is  a larger part of the offense, and that role will expand on a short work week. Take him over.

The consensus: Chiefs  have  70% of the action and the total is 58% going over.

The Selection: The Broncos  have the ability to score but are streaky. The Chief’s defense has not given up more than 20 points in any game this season. Chiefs have defeated the Broncos 15 straight games. The Chiefs continue  their dominance of Denver. The line movement leads me to follow the early money and take the game under. Chiefs minus the points and the under.

On Monday, I will preview the Monday Night Football featuring the Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers. My record on MNF is 10-4 with 1 push this season.

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