Mims' Thursday Night Football Pick: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, Kelce injury moves line toward Lions

The Chiefs are favored by 4.5 and the total is 53.5. The money line is Chiefs –225 and Lions +180.
Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.@Chiefs on X

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions open the NFL 2023 season on Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs are favored by 4.5 and the total is 53.5. The money line is Chiefs –225 and Lions +180. Kansas City is the home team.

The line movement: The game opened at Chiefs -7  and 54. Then Chiefs TE Travis Kelce injured his knee. The public quickly jumped on the Lions and a two-point move toward Detroit resulted. Kelce is QB Patrick Mahomes' favorite target. The Lions money line has dropped from +240.

Coaching Match Up: Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid over Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell. It should be noted that the Chiefs enter this season without longtime Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who's moved to the Washington Commanders. Reid will do the play calling.

Quarterback: Mahomes all day, every day over Jared Goff. Goff does have an array of weapons but Mahomes is in the conversation as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Goff is not!

The consensus: Chiefs have 55% of the action and the total is 65% going with the over. 61% of the bets are on the Chiefs.  The late money line action is on the Lions.with approximately 70% of the action. Due to the line movement more money has come in on the Lions and the under in the past two days.

The Selection: When the Chiefs have been a favorite or a slight underdog and the line has moved against them, their record with Mahomes is 7-3 against the spread.  While not having Kelce and All Pro DT Chris Jones will be a concern, the Chiefs will rely on Mahomes to work his magic. The defenses will be nonexistent so expect a high scoring game. Chiefs’ money line and the over.

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