Alloy's NFL Week 14 Forecast: The Physical Skill Players Strategy
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We love December football! It’s the time of year centered around the holidays, family and football. December is an exciting time for our data and analytics team as we have our database full of games from the current season from which to analyze. For Week 14 in the NFL, we’re opening the Alloy vault to unveil our Physical Skill Players strategy! You’ll be able to recognize a successful filter from recent Alloy Forecast strategies as we continue to double and triple down on success.
What’s in the strategy?
We built this strategy with physicality in mind. We hypothesized that teams that excel in press coverage and yards after the catch on both sides of the ball would win more bets. This puts an emphasis on two skill positions: wide receiver and cornerback. The stats we found success with were broken tackles for receivers and completion yards allowed for defenders. Fighting for the extra yard on offense while defending 3rd down completions on defense felt like a winning formula and it proved true. We also looked directly at teams coming off a loss as we’ve seen this computes a strong correlation to winning.
Stats
Higher Broken Receiving Tackles per game
Lower Defensive Completions allowed per game
Filter
Consecutive Losses >= 1
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What does the data show?
Since 2020, the Physical Skill Players strategy has been extremely successful against the spread (ATS) for close underdogs. The strategy boasted a record of 60-32-2 (64%) and yields a 24% return on investment.
This season has proven to be even more successful. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Physical Skill Players strategy has won 68% of games resulting in a staggering ROI of 33%. Heavy underdogs have also performed well this season with a 10-5 record ATS.
If you like to bet on the favorites, you’re covered as well. Looking at moneyline results for this season, close favorites have won 64% of games (21-12 record).
Here are your Week 14 NFL games to bet with the Physical Skill Players strategy:
ATS Close Underdogs:
Jaguars (+4) @ Titans
Moneyline Close Favorites:
Dolphins (-180) @ Chargers
Patriots (-125) @ Cardinals