NFL Week 12 Forecast: The Best of Alloy Strategies Thanksgiving Edition

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Somehow, someway, we have reached Thanksgiving week in the 2022 NFL season! If you’ve been betting with our Alloy Forecasts each week, we know what you’re thankful for this time of year. Joking aside, we are extremely thankful for all of Alloy’s readers and app users. Together, we are succeeding on our mission in helping sports fans become more data-driven. 

Our Week 12 Alloy Forecast looks back and highlights three betting strategies that have been hitting at high win rates this season. All of these strategies have been featured as Alloy Forecast articles this season. They have all been backtested, some longer than others. We curated the top three forecast strategies that have been hitting the most for this season.

Strategy 1:

Road Grader Strategy:

Bet type: Spread

Profitable Results bucket: Heavy Underdogs 

Record: 11-7

Win PCT: 61%

Return on Investment: 17%

What's in the strategy?

The Road Grader Strategy incorporates two stats and a filter. For this strategy, we looked at teams with a power rushing attack and a disciplined offense. We’re looking to bet on teams with a rushing attack with more broken tackles and fewer offensive penalty yards per game. In filters, we found success looking specifically at road teams.

Road Grader Week 12 games to bet:

Giants +10 @ Cowboys

Texans +13 @ Dolphins

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Strategy 2:

Defensive Pressures Strategy:

Bet type: Spread

Profitable Results bucket: Close Underdogs 

Record: 28-18

Win PCT: 61%

Return on Investment: 16%

What's in the strategy?

The Defensive Pressures strategy factors in QB hits per game, hurries per game, and forced fumbles per game.  There are no filters in this strategy.

Defensive Pressures Week 12 games to bet:

Patriots +2.5 @ Vikings

Titans +2.5 vs Bengals

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Strategy 3:

Chain Movers Strategy:

Bet type: Moneyline

Profitable Results bucket: Close Favorites 

Record: 9-3

Win PCT: 75%

Return on Investment: 21%

What's in the strategy?

The Chain Movers strategy focuses on wide receiver talent that has the ability to produce first downs. We added an away filter to only look at road teams. 

Chain Movers Week 12 games to bet:

Bengals -128 @ Titans

Buccaneers -176 @ Browns