Alloy's NFL Week 11 Forecast: The Bounce Back Strategy
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It’s Week 11 of the NFL season! This is the point of the year where strong teams start to push for a playoff push and poor teams begin to wilt away. This week, our Alloy Forecast looks to bet teams cominging off a loss. For Week 11, we introduce the Bounce Back Strategy, built on Alloy Pro!
Fair or not, it's common practice for quarterbacks to take the credit for wins and the blame for losses. After losses, it's the QB's responsibility to keep morale high and right the ship. The offensive line plays a major role in this as well. They are responsible for keeping their QB upright to bounce back the following week.
We theorized that teams with a stronger quarterback and offensive line than their upcoming opponent would respond following off a loss. The data backs this up over the last few seasons.
What’s in the strategy?
The Bounce Back Strategy looks specifically at teams coming off a loss. This strategy is focusing on QB and offensive line play. We focus on teams with a higher passer rating and an o-line that allows fewer sacks per game than their upcoming opponent.
What does the data show?
Close underdogs thrive in this strategy against the spread AND on the moneyline.
ATS: Since 2020, teams that fit the Bounce Back Strategy have gone 39-19 (28% win pct). That equates to a 67% win percentage yielding a 28% return on investment.
Moneyline: Since 2020, moneyline bets for close underdogs have gone 28-19 (60% win pct), yielding a 38% ROI.
Here are your Week 11 games to bet with the Bounce Back Strategy:
Texans vs. Commanders (+3, +138)
Raiders @ Broncos (+2.5, +123)