Alloy's NFL Week 7 Forecast: The QB & D Strategy
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Week 7 of the NFL season is upon us! If you’ve been tracking the Alloy Forecasts on a weekly basis, you’ve seen the gradual success and profit you can earn from betting with data. This week we will be unveiling a new betting strategy built by the Alloy team.
The quickstart wizard is the platform we used to build this week’s strategy. This betting strategy originated from playing fantasy football. Teams that have had success in our leagues have had consistency in two areas: quarterback play and defense/special teams. So, we built a strategy to be used ATS that incorporates both. This is the QB & D strategy.
The QB & D strategy factors in accurate passing, strong overall QB play and a turnover forcing defense. The strategy filtered in teams on a winning streak. We’re looking to bet on teams that have had recent momentum.
What does the data show?
The QB & D strategy has been backtested since 2020. The results have been phenomenal for close underdogs. When close underdogs fit this strategy over the past 2+ years, they played to an overall record of 38-18-1. That’s a 67% win percentage yielding a 29% ROI.
Looking at this season alone, the numbers have stayed consistent. In 2022, close underdogs are 9-3-1 when fitting the QB & D strategy. This strategy continues to be trending upwards.
*Tip: The Alloy app allows you to break down results in different spread and moneyline ranges. This strategy in particular would not be profitable anywhere except the close underdog spread. Make sure you save your strategies and are consistently checking the app every week to know the best games to bet on with the data you contrived.
Here are your Week 7 games to bet with the QB & D Strategy:
Commanders (+4.5) vs Packers
(Carson Wentz is out for Week 7. Before placing this bet, make sure you are aware that Taylor Heinicke will be starting at QB for Washington.)
Jets (+1.5) @ Broncos