Alloy's NFL Week 5 Forecast: The Ground n' Pound Strategy
This article is highlighting a profitable backtested strategy from Alloy Sports. Plug this strategy in and see what games to bet on. Or create your own. Click here to sign up for free!
We’ve reached the pivotal Week 5 of the NFL season. From this point forward, the data becomes legit. Obviously there’s still three quarters of the season left to play but from a data analysis standpoint we start to feel very confident meshing historical data with data from this season.
This week’s Alloy Forecast introduces a new strategy built on the Alloy Pro platform. Alloy Pro is our full platform with over 200 stats and filters that will be launched within the next couple of weeks.
In a nod to Rex Ryan, we named this week’s strategy Ground n’ Pound. From 2009-2014, Rex Ryan had a clear offensive philosophy with the Jets. That was to establish the run and play smash mouth football.
The Ground n’ Pound strategy has been backtested since the start of the 2019 season. It incorporates three key rushing factors: rushing first downs, touchdowns and yards after contact. We used an in-conference filter as rivalry matchups tend to get chippy. We wanted to focus on teams that are determined to demoralize their opponents with the ability to win in the trenches.
What does the data show?
Underdogs that fit the Ground n’ Pound strategy have been very successful. Teams able to control the line of scrimmage and win on the ground have covered at a high rate. Since 2019, close underdogs have won 54% of games straight up. The return on investment for moneyline plays since 2019 is 28%.
Close Underdogs ATS Results since 2019:
Win %: 62%
Here are your NFL Week 5 games to bet with the Ground n’ Pound Strategy:
Browns (+3) vs. Chargers
Cowboys (+4.5) @ Rams
*Bonus - Check out our new betting show, Band of Bettors on The Hammer Betting Network, where we break down this strategy and more top plays for Week 5!