Mims: Super Bowl 55 Prop Bets and Predictions
The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing in Super Bowl 55. The Chiefs are favored by 3 and the total is 56. The money line is Chiefs -165 and Bucs +145.
How they got here: Bucs have won 3 straight road playoff games over the Washington Football Team, New Orleans Saints, and Green Bay Packers. The last two wins were aided by the improvement of the defense. Chiefs beat the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills to return to the Super Bowl. They barely handled the Browns but dominated the one-dimensional Bills.
The Prior Meeting: These two teams played each other back in week 12 of the regular season. The Chiefs won 27-24. The Chiefs controlled the game by jumping out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter. The Bucs made the game close with two touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Chiefs dominated time of possession 36:47 to 23:13.
The Prop Bets: The Coin Toss is -101 for Heads or Tails. This is an extremely popular bet. No opinion on the play but if the Chiefs win the toss, they should take the ball first.
Team with Most Penalty Yardage: The Chiefs are -140 and the Bucs are +120. In the 1st game the Chiefs had 10 penalties for 82 yards. The Bucs had 8 penalties for 57. I will go with the Bucs with the value of +120.
Patrick Mahomes Total Passing Attempts: The number of attempts is set at 40.5. The over is -140 and the under is +110. In the first meeting Mahomes threw the ball 49 times. This was done in a game they were leading throughout by two or more scores. I am leaning over.
Travis Kelce over 7.5 in receptions: In the game against the Bills, Kelce had 13 catches. He had 8 catches when they met in week 12. The over is -130 and the under is +100. Lay the 130 and expect a big game from Kelce.
The Trends: Bucs have scored over 26 points in 7 straight games. They have not lost since the first game against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have not shown the same consistency with only 3 of their last 7 games exceeding 28 points scored. They are one of the worst teams in the league Against the Spread. They were 7-9 in the regular season and 8-8 with the total. They are 1-1 in both in the playoffs. Bucs against the spread were 9-7 for the games and the total.
The Money: 57% of the wagers are on the Chiefs. Earlier, 70% of the tickets were on the Chiefs with 48% of the actual money on KC. Some large bets on Tampa have made this swing occur without changing the point spread.
The Pick: This reminds me of the NBA when Jordan went against Magic. Magic was used to winning or at least being in the Finals every year. Jordan was the new up-and-coming guy that was the face of the league. When they met in the Finals, Jordan prevailed. Mahomes is Jordan and Brady is Magic. If not for the injury to the Chiefs OT Eric Fisher, I would have more confidence in the Chiefs. The unfortunate car accident that involved Britt Reid will affect the team. Chiefs also had a close brush with COVID when the team barber was diagnosed with the virus prior to cutting a player’s hair.
I am just going with the over for the game. Tease the Game with the Bucs and the total with 7 points. The total will drop to 49 and you get Brady +10.
Enjoy the game. Follow me Twitter on and we can share halftime thoughts.