NFL Conference Championship: Mims has odds, picks, & prop bets for Buccaneers vs Packers and Bills vs Chiefs
The NFL Conference Championship Games are this weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers, 3:05 pm on FOX
The Packers are favored by 3.0 and the total is 51.5. The Money line is Packers -175 and Bucs +155.
The Packers were 13 -3 in the regular season and just defeated the Rams in the divisional game last week by a score of 32-18. Aaron Rodgers threw for 2 TDs and 296 passing yards. The Packers also ran for 188 yards. Green Bay was very efficient on third downs, converting 8/12. The defense produced 4 sacks.
The Buccaneers were 10-6 in the regular season. They have defeated the Washington Football team and The New Orleans Saints in consecutive road games to get to Championship Week. Tom Brady completed 18 of 33 passes for 199 yards and 2 TD against the Saints. The Bucs rushed for 127 yards. Tampa’s efficiency on 3rd down was 8/17. The Bucs defense were responsible for 4 takeaways, 3 interceptions and a fumble recovery.
Prop Bets to watch:
Tom Brady under 284.5 passing yards. He doesn’t have Antonio Brown to throw to in this game due to injury. Mike Evans was limited last week so I do not expect big plays down field. The price of -115 is the clincher. Take him under!
Cameron Brate receptions are projected at 2.5. Brate had 4 catches against Washington and the Saints. He gets that against the Packers. The price is at -115.
Davante Adams total receptions is set at 7.5. He has 9 catches against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams defense. He goes over his total at a price of -105.
The Bucs defeated the Packers early in the regular season by a score of 38-10. In that game, Rodgers threw 2 interceptions after having a 10-point lead. The Packers are 11-0 in games when they do not commit a turnover. In that same game, Brady didn’t commit a turnover and the Bucs did not commit a penalty — both are unlikely this time. If Saints do not turn the ball over last week, they are probably playing today. There are only marginal differences in the Saints and Bucs last week in time of possession and the number of plays run. Tampa Bay’s defense does not save them in this game. In my opinion, the Packers win the game, and it goes over. Give the points and look at the Green Bay money line in a parlay.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 6:40 pm on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs meet the Buffalo Bills for the 2nd time this season. The Chiefs won the previous meeting by a score of 26-17. The Chiefs are favored by 3.0 and the total is 54.5. The money line is Chiefs -175 and Buffalo +155.
The story line going into this game was the availability of Patrick Mahomes. He suffered a concussion last week against the Browns. The Chiefs held on to win the game 22-17. He has been cleared to play in the Championship game. I was surprised that the line did not moved to 4 after he was cleared. The numbers are solid and Buffalo is getting a respectful amount of action. The ‘Against the Spread’ numbers are quite interesting. The Bills have covered 9 of their last ten while the Chiefs are 2-8 over that same period.
Prop Bets to watch:
Josh Allen total passing attempts under 38.5. Allen threw 37 times against the Ravens in a game that they won 17-3. The Bills do not rely on the running game. Allen’s passing yardage is 307. The prices are -105 and -115 for his plays. In the 1st game he threw 27 times and has 122 yards passing. He will go under on both.
Match ups to consider:
Stefon Diggs against Travis Kelce for most receiving yards. Diggs is -124 and Kelce is +100. Diggs will get more targets than Kelce so he would be the play.
Andy Reid ran the ball in the 1st game against the Bills. Clyde Edwards -Helaire is questionable for this game. He had 26 carries for 161 yards in the 1st meeting. If he is limited, expect Darrel Williams to pick up the slack. The Chiefs dominated time of possession 37:45 to 22:15. This formula was employed last week by the Ravens. Baltimore could not score and gave up a pick six when they were deep in Bills territory. The Chiefs will score and the game goes under. Since I am not certain about what percentage of Mahomes I am getting and how poor the Chiefs are ATS, I would pass on taking them unless it is in a teaser.
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