Monday Night Football: Mims has the odds and picks Bills vs Patriots with a few prop bets
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, 8:15 pm EST on ESPN/ABC
The Bills are currently sitting in the 2nd position in the NFL AFC playoff race. The Patriots are eliminated making this the 1st time they did not make the post season since 2008. Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East and are favored by 7 with the total being 46.5. The Money Line, as of this post time, is -335 for Bills and +280 for Pats.
The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 and 4 straight games. Buffalo is averaging 33 points in the last 4 games. The Pats have lost two straight games. The Pats have scored 15 points combined in the losses. In my opinion, this will probably be the only season that Cam Newton ever plays for New England.
Prop bets I like:
Stefon Diggs. He is a primary target of Josh Allen. He gets double digit targets in most games and his projected receptions is 6.5. I have seen the over for his projection as high as -160 so shop for a good price. Take Diggs to go over.
Josh Allen's TD total for the game is listed at 1.5. The line is -200. You can see a pattern here where you must lay more money on the players who are hot and popular. I think Allen stays hot and goes over.
I do not see an inspired effort from Cam Newton. His projected passing yards is 169.5. That is extremely low. While he did pass for 209 against the Dolphins, the 3 games prior he was well under his projected total for this game. I think he goes back to form with a reasonable price of -112. Take Newton and the under!
The Bills have everything to play for and the Patriots do not. The 7-point line pays homage to the Pats and their history under Bill Belichick. I think the Bills will continue to dominate as they head to playoffs trending up. Take the Bills with points and/or the money line.
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