NFL Week 12: Mims picks Titans vs Colts, Cardinals vs Patriots, Chiefs vs Bucs, and bonus prop bets
3 games that are a good bet to be competitive on Sunday
The 1st game is Titans and Colts. The Colts are home and -3. The total is 51.5. This is a rematch and the Colts won two weeks ago because of mistakes by the Titans on special teams. Phillip Rivers is hot and not turning the ball over as of late. He spreads the ball around, so it is difficult to defend their offense. Ryan Tannehill is playing more like the Tannehill that played in Miami. I am looking for more consistently from him but not expecting it this week. Derrick Henry will need a monster game to keep Tennessee close. Colts pull away and win again.
My pick: Lean toward Colts to cover.
The Patriots are going against the Cardinals. The Pats are the home team and are a 1.5 underdog. The total is 49.0. Pats came back to earth after losing to the Texans. Rex Burkhead is out for the season with a knee injury. That will hurt the Pats offensively. Kyler Murray is playing well and should connect often with DeAndre Hopkins. Pats did not pressure the passer well in the loss to Houston. Expect the trend to continue this week. Cam Newton is erratic and has not shown he can play 4 good quarters of football. Pats need the game to stay in the playoff hunt. Cardinals have had time to prepare and will prevail.
My pick: Take the Cardinals.
The best game on the board is the toughest to handicap. The Chiefs are playing the Bucs. Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes is much watch TV. Brady is coming off a subpar game against the Rams. He was pressured and threw two picks in the game. Brady rarely has two bad games in a row. Mahomes is heating up and throwing for 300 yards or more in his last 3 games. If Jared Goff had success against the Tampa defense, then you can expect Mahomes to excel in this match up. Chiefs are favored by 3 and the total is 56.
My pick: I like the over in this game. The Chiefs should exceed their projected scoring total of 29.5.
Prop Bets Advice: Shop around when looking at prop action. You can find value when you compare what operators are offering. Last week, a winning play on Rob Gronkowski did not earn as much because the price I had to lay was extremely high. I also made the wager at the better price but would have won more by risking everything with one bet. The amount you save can be the equivalent of another wager.
Prop Bets to watch:
Antonio Brown projected 5.5 receptions at -105. I like the over. I will go with Gronkowski again because his projected catch total is 3.5 at +105. Brady sees the success the Raiders had in going to the tight end against the Chiefs and uses it in this game.
QB prop match up: Take Murray over Newton. Murray should complete over 22.5 passes at a price of -112. Make a play on Rivers to complete over 24.5 passes. You must lay -125.
Follow me on Twitter and we can talk about the games. Use the #GTLivechat.