Boop on Week 11 Eagles vs. Patriots Prop Bets - Carson Wentz, Jordan Matthews, Miles Sanders, Tom Brady, Zach Ertz
The Eagles have scored a touchdown in every meaningful game they have played since midway through Chip Kelly’s first season. But with over 20,000 offensive yards and 122 touchdowns resting on the injured list, matriculating the ball down the field against the NFL’s best defense may be a problem.
Hey, miracles happen. Just ask Evansville . . .
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>>> Let’s start by taking a huge leap of faith in the defense, that they can keep the Patriots off the board for 15 minutes or the Eagles can maybe match field goals on the first couple of drives.
Neither the Patriots nor the Eagles have been tied at the end of a first quarter this season, normally a fairly common occurrence (30 times so far in 2019 across the league).
Worth a shot at +390 (FanDuel).
Tied at End of First Quarter . . . $3.00 / $11.70
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>>> New England is a league-best +105 in first-half scoring (153/48), mostly due to keeping the other team off the board. If the Eagles can generate any points at all, the First Half Over (22.5 at William Hill) is so doable.
First Half Over 22.5 . . . $5.00 / $4.55
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>>> The last time the Birds saw Tom Brady, he threw for 505 yards in Super Bowl LII, 50 more yards than any other quarterback has ever thrown against them . . . in the regular season, the postseason or the schoolyard.
Not only will he not reach that total Sunday, he will not reach half of that total Sunday. FD has 280.5 at -112.
And we do not see him throwing the ball anywhere close to 40 times. If the Pats get ahead, they will run to eat clock. If they get behind, they will throw but probably eat up more yards on each pass on the suspect Eagles secondary and therefore make their way down the field with fewer throws. (Our Philly confidence abounds, eh?) We will take the higher total (39.5) at William Hill at worse odds (-125) than FD (38.5/-112), just to give us that one extra attempt to work with.
Brady Passing Yards Under 280.5 . . . $5.00 / $4.46
Brady Pass Attempts Under 39.5 . . . . $6.25 / $5.00
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>>> The Eagles Fan in us really thinks the Birds can win. The football observer in us knows that’s probably a longer shot than the odds says it is (Patriots -4, -200ish).
So we will take one small bow to the heart and go with the Eagles pulling an upset and covering an Alternate Spread. Eight of New England’s last nine losses (dating to Oct. 2, 2017), have been by at least seven points. FanDuel has an Eagles -6.5 at +360.
Eagles -6.5 Points . . . $5.00 / $18.00
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>>> We really wanted to lay some cash down on Miles Sanders, since he is going to be the Eagles best offensive option after Bill Belichick and the boys shut down Zach Ertz. But we found no yardage or attempt/completion lines for him (or many other Eagles) as late as Saturday afternoon. I guess the uncertainty of the Birds offense has the odds-makers a little leary also. If (when) they fall behind, Carson Wentz is going to have to throw to someone, we just don’t know who. The 33.5 attempts FD is offering should do the trick, especially at +108.
Carson Wentz Attempts Over 33.5 . . . $5.00 / $5.40
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>>> The Patriots haven’t made a field goal longer than 41 yards all season (0-for-1 from 48), so let’s go back to the old reliable provided by DraftKings.
Longest Field Goal Under 46.5 . . . $6.25 / $5.00
(Void if none made)
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>>> Here is hoping Jordan III is at least as good as Rocky III, and we will be humming Eye of the Tiger every time Jordan Matthews crosses the goal line against the Patriots.
And if he can do so three times, we’ll be dancing to the tune of DraftKings’ 500-1 odds . . .
Jordan Matthews to Score –
Score 1+ TD . . . $2.00 / $11.00 (DK/FD)
Score 2+ TD . . . $1.00 / $80.00 (FD)
Score 3+ TD . . . $1.00 / $501.00 (DK)
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>>> That’s $39.50 on the board by our count. Let’s toss the last $10.50 across any other Eagle that might score an offensive touchdown. Sure, it’s seems like throwing money away, but if they get into a slugfest and start trading bombs, maybe we can cash a few tickets here.
To Score Any TD --
Miles Sanders . . . $2.00 / $3.00 (+150/FD)
Zach Ertz . . . . . . . $1.50 / $3.45 (+230/FD)
Nelson Agholor. . $1.00 / $2.50 (DK-FD)
Dallas Goedert. . $1.00 / $2.60 (DK-FD)
Mack Hollins. . . . $1.00 / $5.50 (FD)
Jay Ajayi . . . . . . . $1.00 / $7.00 (DK)
Carson Wentz . . . $1.00 / $6.50 (FD)
Arcega-Whiteside. $1.00 / $8.50 (DK)
Boston Scott. . . . . $1.00 / $8.50 (FD)
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