It appears that Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson is expected to return to action Sunday (he is officially listed as questionable), which made us want to jump all over the Over 38.5 for the Longest TD . . . until we uncovered this:
The Bears have not allowed a touchdown from outside the Red Zone in their last 12 games (including the playoff loss to the Eagles last season) . . .
Yeah, you read that right. It says here Melvin Gordon’s 19-yard TD run last week for the Chargers is the longest TD allowed by Chicago since the Giants’ Odell Beckham threw a 49-yard TD pass against the Bears last Dec. 2. By the way, every other NFL team has allowed at least one TD of 21+ yards this season.
Despite that, even if Jackson does not play or does not play a lot or well, we always have the Eagles’ secondary ready to miss tackles and allow a medium gain to go haywire.
Longest TD Over 38.5 Yards . . . $5 / $4.35
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>>> Even DJax’s return will not hamper Jordan Howard’s season-long attempt to lift me into a higher tax bracket. Once again last week, he bested his Rushing Yardage Total, which except for a miss by a single yard the game before, would have been six straight cash-ins.
The number keeps growing (60.5) in some places but we found a very usable 55.5 at Draftkings. Not as sure his rushing attempts (14.5 FanDuel) is quite as good a bet as yards, although he did have 23 tries last week after Miles Sanders left with a shoulder injury. Sanders seems fine, so we will pass on rushing attempts.
Howard Over 55.5 Rushing Yards . . . $5 / $4.25
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>>> We aren’t quite done with Howard yet. Since he’ll be facing his former team, let’s load up on his TD Props.
Jordan Howard –
Score Any TD . . . $5 / $5.75
Score 2 TDs . . . . $2 / $14.00
Score 3 TDs . . . . $1 / $31.00
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>>> The Bears have scored just one first-quarter touchdown in three road games so far this season . . . The Eagles have outscored their opponents by 93-15 in their last 17 third quarters at the Linc.
So we will replay a winning parlay from last week.
Eagles win First & Third Quarters . . . $5 / $14.18
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>>> We almost feel like it is stealing money taking the Under 46.5 Yards on the Longest Field Goal. Sure the odds (-122) have gotten a little steep, but the numbers bear us out.
Chicago’s Eddy Pineiro has tried two longer (made both), but they were in the thin, 87-degree air of Denver back in Week 2 . . . Jake Elliott’s only longer attempt (and make) was two weeks ago − indoors − at Minnesota. Sunday will not be 87 and it will not be indoors.
Longest FG Made Under 46.5 . . . $6.10 / $5
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>>> FanDuel generally posts the best TD Odds in New Jersey, as they do these week for Miles Sanders (+400), who electrified the Eagles with a 65-yard run to paydirt last Sunday. His two TDs both came in the Birds’ recent three-game road stretch and the home folk will be happy to see him score his first TD at the Linc against the Bears.
Sanders to Score Any TD . . . $5 / $20
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>>> While FanDuel does have the best odds for most Eagles TD Odds this week, we thought we’d take a shot at a couple of Birds whose Odds were better elsewhere.
To Score Any Touchdown –
Darren Sproles (+700 DK) . . . $3 / $21.00
Carson Wentz (+700 FOXBet) . . $3 / $21.00
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>>> Carson Wentz has thrown a TD pass in seven of his eight games this season . . . Mitchell Trubisky has thrown a TD pass in just two of his six games this season.
You have to lay a lot (-152) that Wentz will better him in that department this afternoon, but we are willing to take that chance.
Wentz More TD Passes . . . $7.60 / $5
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>>> We know we already have a first/third quarter parlay down, but to round out our wagers out to an even $50, we are going to dip into the third stanza once again.
Over 8.5 Points in Third Quarter . . . $2.30 / $2.09
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