In Part III, we gave you some fairly good reasoning for taking the Under 46.5 as the Longest Touchdown in Super Bowl LIII. Here, we give you some doubly good reasons for taking the Under 1.5 as the Shortest Touchdown in Super Bowl LIII.
For as long as there have been Super Bowl Props, the Over/Under on the Shortest Touchdown has been 1.5, so you are merely betting there will be a TD scored from the one-yard line or a recovery in the end zone in which the length of the TD is technically zero (which, at last check, was less than 1.5).
If you follow the chart below detailing the shortest touchdown of each Super Bowl (listed by calendar year), you can see there has been a 1- (or a 0-) yard TD in 20 of the last 29 Super Bowls. That’s one of the many reasons you will have to lay such a high price on the Under (in the -180 area).
Even dating back through the entire SB history, 32 of the 52 have seen a TD that would be qualified as Under in a Shortest Prop.
Now take a look at the Rams and Patriots games this season and whether or not each game yielded a TD under 1.5 yards in length. Eleven of the Rams’ 18 games (including the last five) and 10 of the Patriots’ 18 games (including the last two) had such a touchdown.
And just for some icing on the cake, both Conference Championship games, all four Divisional Playoff games and two of the four Wild Card Playoff games had a one-yard touchdown. That’s eight of the 10 postseason games this season in which the Under would have cashed.
Heard enough? We have, and we are doubling down our normal $5 wager.
Pick: Shortest TD Under 1.5 Yards $10 (-182)