It is hard to believe that the Eagles and Patriots set an all-time NFL record – regular season or postseason – by gaining a combined 1,151 yards in last year’s Super Bowl, yet the longest touchdown play went for just 34 yards. Congratulations if you had the Under 46.5 for Longest TD in LII.
That number is the same for LIII. And it looks like Under is once again the way to go.
Consider that the Under has come out in the Longest TD Prop in five of the last eight SBs, as well as eight of the 20 for which we could find an O/U number (dating back to the 1999 game).
An Under play really cements itself when you check out the longest touchdowns scored in the 36 games played by the Rams and Patriots this season. The Rams have not seen a TD of longer than even 43 yards – their own or their opponents – since the Week 12 bye. And the Patriots have gone four straight weeks without breaking 46.5 (although there was a 46-yard TD in their season finale with the Jets).
Either way, neither team has had anything at all to do with a TD of longer than 46 yards since before Christmas.
Long touchdowns do happen, so this is by no means a lock, but certainly worth our usual $5 wager. Check back Friday when we examine out the Over/Under on the Shortest TD and see why we are considering doubling down on that one.
Pick: Longest TD Under 46.5 ($5/-115)