We had a friend in our weekly Sunday NFL bar who did a great job this season of nailing first-quarter four- and five-team parlays against the spread in the 1 p.m. games. Perhaps it had something to do with the fact he had been bowling all morning. Or maybe the fact that it was 12:15 and he was drinking already. Or maybe both.
We ourselves opted for the easier-to-figure First Quarter O/U bets, especially when there were fast- (or slow-) scoring teams matched up. Did not go so well.
Nonetheless, that particular Prop is definitely something we will go for in Super Bowl LIII. The First Quarter O/U has opened at 10.5 and that is probably where it is going to stay, at least until we get much closer to kickoff (6:30 p.m., Feb. 3).
Historically (see the first chart below), only 15 of the previous 52 Super Bowls saw First Quarters exceed 10.5 points (highlighted in yellow). In fact, last year’s 12-point output was just the third to exceed 10.5 in 20 years. And the only consecutive times it has broken 10.5 were in 1985-86-87 and 1997-98.
Last season was also the first of Tom Brady’s eight Super Bowls (see blue) that saw the First Quarter go Over 10.5.
Here are the year-by-year Super Bowl First Quarter scoring totals:
If you are interested in how the First Quarters of the Rams and Patriots have played out this season, we have that too (below).
Rams games saw 10.5 points or more in the first 15 minutes in seven of their first 11 games, but just twice in their last seven (although those two were among the Rams’ last three contests). Patriots’ First Quarters managed to go Over 10.5 eight times in 18 games, but just three times in their final seven.
With two explosive teams, it’s not quite the slam dunk we’d like our early-game Props to be, but we’re certainly leaning toward the Under here. In fact, yeah, let’s just go ahead and pull that trigger . . .
Pick: First Quarter Under 10.5