The easy way to look at the four NFL teams’ Over/Under Totals for this weekend would have been simply Over . . . Way Over. But that seemed too simple, so we decided we had to go with at least one Under. But which one?
So, we started jotting down some numbers on a handy, dandy legal pad. On it were each team’s point totals this season in the situation (home/away) in which it will find itself Sunday. Then, we looked at each team’s points allowed the same way. Then we compared all those point totals to the posted corresponding totals for these games (not the totals posted for each actual game).
And as our little legal pad shows, one Under was the easiest of the four teams to pick.
The Patriots have only broken the 26.5-point barrier three times in eight road games, and one of those was a 27. The Chiefs, whose defense has rightfully been maligned all season, have allowed just two teams to score over 26.5 at Arrowhead Stadium, and those teams posted a 27 and a 29.
The Over choices for the Chiefs and the Rams were, as we thought, very obvious. (You only had to sit through the 54-51 Instant Classic back in Week 11 to see that.) But the Saints? Not so much. Drew Brees and company topped the 29.5-point mark six times in nine home games this season, but neither of their most recent two. Sure, one was a throw-away Week 17 game, but the other was against the Eagles, whose defense was almost as maligned as the Chiefs’ this season. Since the Rams allowed just two Over 26.5s in their road games - and just once in their last six – we had ourselves and very unforeseen Second Under.
Check our twitter feed (@BoopStats) for the charts with the point totals mentioned above. If you don’t quite get the charts, don’t feel bad. We showed it to our dogs and two of the four didn’t get it either.
Pick: Chiefs Over 29.5
Pick: Patriots Under 26.5
Pick: Rams Over 26.5
Pick: Saints Under 29.5