CFB YTD: 15-9 (+5.1 units)
It was a so-so Week 9 in college football for us, as our best bets ended up going 1-1. UNLV lost a heartbreak to Boise State on Friday night, but Texas A&M got a huge win over LSU to at least salvage something for the week.
Week 10 of the college football season is here, and fans will be treated to a premier matchup in the Big Ten this Saturday. Check out our Ohio State vs. Penn State betting guide below for all the info.
Despite their lackluster performance against Nebraska in Week 9, oddsmakers still opened this line Ohio State -3.5. Lots of folks had an appetite for the Buckeyes, so most oddsmakers pushed the line to Ohio State -4 but it has since bounced back to -3.5.
According to the opening total, sportsbooks are expecting a moderate amount of scoring in this Big Ten showdown. The number opened at 48 but Under bettors have pushed it down to 47 at the time of this writing on Tuesday morning.
Ohio State is 6-1 on the year and their only loss was a one-point heartbreaker to the Oregon Ducks back on October 12th. The Buckeyes rank 4th in the country in yards per play and a respectable 6th in yards per pass. Kansas State transfer Will Howard has fit in seamlessly with Ryan Day's offense, as he's thrown for 1,795 yards and 17 touchdowns.
The Bucks love to hand the ball to former Ole Miss star Quinshon Judkins, who has amassed 520 yards and 6 touchdowns this season. Though Judkins has been solid, I was shocked that this OSU offensive line struggled to get much push against both Oregon and Nebraska.
Ohio State's defense has also been one of the best in the nation, as they're Top 10 in both yards per play allowed and yards per rush allowed. Denzel Burke leads the Bucks secondary with 2 interceptions and Alabama transfer Caleb Downs continues to be one of the top safeties in the land.
Penn State is a perfect 7-0 this season and James Franklin has one of his most talented rosters ever in Happy Valley. QB Drew Allar has finally come into his own this season, as he's thrown for 1,640 yards and 12 touchdowns. His favorite target has been Tyler Warren, who has racked up 559 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns.
A key to the Nittany Lions' success has been their high conversion rate on third down, which is 5th best in the country. They also rank 9th in yards per play and 4th in yards per pass. Kaytron Allen is a big, bruising back who has no problems running in between the tackles.
Penn State's defense has been pretty stingy the entire year. They rank inside the Top 10 in both yards per play allowed and yards per pass allowed. DE Abdul Carter leads the team with 4 sacks.
James Franklin has burned me on numerous occasions in the past, but I like the Nittany Lions plus the points at home. We already saw how much Ohio State's defense struggled against Oregon on the road earlier this season. I could see the Bucks having trouble slowing down Allar and this Penn State passing attack.
My numbers say that Ohio State should be favored but only by a point or so. Getting anything over a field goal in this huge game seems like a gift. Franklin is notorious for choking in big games, but it's not like Day hasn't done his fair share of that as well. Give me the Lions!
Prediction: Penn State 27 - Ohio State 24