NCAA Football: Greg Frank picks the Big 10 — Minnesota vs Rutgers and Indiana vs Maryland
Minnesota (-28.5) @ Rutgers (47.5)
Pick: Rutgers +28.5
I’ll start off by saying I don’t blame any of you for not wanting to bet Rutgers. However, if enough people think like that, there will eventually be value on the side that no one wants to touch. Our pick here is more against Minnesota than on Rutgers though. The Gophers are new to the Top 25 this week. In 2019, teams appearing in the AP Poll for the first time are 2-12 ATS. While some trends can be random and hard to trust, this one seems to have enough logic to where we want to follow it and fade Minnesota. These are kids aged 18-22 and in the case of Minnesota, having their best season in quite some time. Who can blame them for riding their high horses a little bit? If the Gophers take care of business against Rutgers on Saturday and next week against Maryland, they’ll have a great chance to get College Gameday in Minneapolis for a November 9 showdown with Penn State. Rutgers and Maryland don’t appear to be daunting opponents, but with the excitement building around PJ Fleck’s program, we’re not sure they’ll be fully focused against the lowly Scarlet Knights; therefore we’ll take the four touchdowns and the hook.
Indiana (-6) @ Maryland (59)
Pick: Indiana -6
This certainly feels like two teams going in opposite directions. Since getting their rear-ends kicked by Ohio State in the Big 10 opener, the Hoosiers have a pair of 35-point victories over Connecticut and Rutgers and nearly won outright as a hefty dog in East Lansing against Michigan State. Maryland is one of those ATS losses for teams new to the Top 25 this year. In fact, the Terrapins lost outright at Lincoln Financial Field against Temple back on September 14 which remains the lone week of the season Maryland has been ranked. Since that loss to Temple, here are Maryland’s results:
September 28: Penn State 59 Maryland 0
October 5: Maryland 48 Rutgers 7
October 12: Purdue 40 Maryland 14
Purdue has been one of the more underwhelming teams in the Big 10 this season and throttled Maryland last week in West Lafayette. Given how lopsided those three games have been for the Terps, we wouldn’t expect much fight from them in the second half if they get behind. Therefore, at under a touchdown, we’ll lay the points with Indiana.
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