Not all conferences have started conference play yet, but the Big Ten is underway. As usual, the conference is pretty stacked with 6 teams in the Top 25. Let’s dive into some of the games that we think might be close or fun to watch this Saturday in the Big Ten.
There are 3 things that are guaranteed when it comes to March. My birthday, St. Patrick’s Day, and Tom Izzo making a deep run in the tournament. Seriously, even in the seasons where his teams sit at a 9-13 seed in March, he always seems to find a way to the Sweet 16. This team, at least right now, looks pretty poised to do just that.
While they aren’t in the Top 200 of teams in points per game, they’re 8th in the nation in points allowed. We all know defense wins championships. They have the 13th hardest schedule and have already shown they can compete with the best.
Their only loss to date is to a Duke team that averages 87 points per game, which they held to 66. Penn State is 8-2, which would sound great if they had beaten anyone worth mentioning.
Their two losses came to a Providence team at a neutral site and at Indiana. This is arguably going to be their toughest test yet, and while they’re at home, I don’t think they have the firepower to put a dent in that Michigan State defense.
Best Bet: Under 144.5
The only conference matchup with two teams in the Top 25, this feels like a game that could go one of two ways. Blowout or buzzer beater. Illinois has had the tougher schedule to begin the season, having already accumulated what could later be considered signature wins against Tennessee and Texas Tech.
Nebraska is undefeated, yes, but they have yet to play a team ranked in the Top 25. Illinois’ two losses came against (5) UConn and (12) Alabama at neutral sites. Illinois is ranked in the top 30 in PPG, while Nebraska sits 86th. Illinois’ SOS is 20th to Nebraska's 119th. I’m not throwing any shade at Fred Hoiberg’s squad.
They could pull this out, but right now, Illinois is more battle-tested. I do have Illinois as one of my dark horses to win the National Championship as long as they continue to improve. Let’s see how they do at home against what I consider a highly overranked Nebraska squad.
Best Bet: Illinois -8.5
I know, I said conference matchups, but the only other one remaining is going to be an absolute schlacking, and this game should at least be more entertaining. So, we’ll follow the Hoosiers a little bit south to take on the Wildcats of Kentucky.
While Kentucky comes in at 6-4, all their losses have been to teams currently ranked in the Top 25, with two in the Top Ten. Indiana’s 8-2 may look better on paper, but only one of their two losses came to a ranked opponent. Both teams come in allowing an average of 67 PPG. Indiana’s scoring is slightly higher at 88.2 PPG vs Kentucky’s 85.5.
It’s hard to pick a side here, as many early lines come out with close matchups like this; it’s virtually a pick ‘em. However, I do think there’s value in the over here. Put those totals together, and these teams are averaging about 170 points. It will be inevitable that the scoring will pile up here.
Best Bet: Over 151.5