We are just hours out from the official start of the First Four. Looking ahead to the Final Four landscape, what are the best futures to place before the dance begins on Thursday?
Michigan State has the easier path than Auburn to make another Final Four under Tom Izzo. Back Sparty and that defense to shine in this tournament. In the West Region, the Gators look unstoppable and elite backcourts normally pull through in March.
That is the case with Golden’s squad this year. Finally, one longshot team to make the Final Four - coming out of the gauntlet East Region.
Michigan State is tied with Iowa State for the second-best odds to win the South Region. Auburn is the favorite at -105. Yes, Auburn has the best player in this tournament in Johni Broome. Yes, the Tigers had an incredible season in the toughest conference.
However, Auburn lost three of their last four games in four very different matchups regarding pace, points scored, and margin of victory/loss. After their first-round matchup, they will have to face Creighton - or worse off an underseeded Louisville team in Kentucky. After the ACC dominated March last year, I’d be extremely nervous betting the Tigers to win the whole thing. Michigan State has an easier path to the Final Four.
Minus the fact that no 1 or 2 seed has made the Final Four after being unranked to start the season, MSU is a legitimate contender. Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson make up a typical championship backcourt, and the Spartans' defense will get them through games even if they shoot the 3-ball poorly.
Most likely facing Ole Miss (defensive issues), UNC/SDSU (lack of star power), or Iowa State (injury troubles), their path doesn’t faze me. Back Izzo to make another Final Four after a tough loss in the Big 10 Tournament just last week.
You almost have to hedge the path when selecting your bracket and predicting your Final Four. Houston will have to go through Gonzaga. Duke will have to go through either Arizona or Oregon and Auburn will face a combination of Louisville, Michigan, or the powerhouse of the Ivy League Yale Bulldogs.
Florida, led by Todd Golden and a slew of backcourt star power, have a top offense and defense in this tournament with experience in both the front and backcourt. After three convincing wins to take the SEC Tournament title into March Madness, Golden’s squad is playing the best basketball in the country and have the easiest path of any 1-seed in the field.
UConn, Maryland, and St. John’s or Texas Tech is the most likely path for the Gators to get back into the Final Four. I don’t think any of these teams have the offensive consistency to keep up with the mighty Gators - who are my pick for champions.
Here’s the sleeper pick. BYU hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since the 2010-11 season. The #1 recruit in the country AJ Dybantsa is on his way to Provo via a rumored $7 million NIL package. That hasn’t stopped former Phoenix Suns assistant Kevin Young from building a Final Four worthy squad.
Junior forward Richie Saunders is a bucket-getter, shooting 51/43/82 splits on 16 PPG. The Cougars have an NBA lottery pick in Egor Demin running the point guard spot. The oversized PG can rebound and assist unlike anyone in this region at the guard spot. Now to the games. The issue with BYU over the years has been their performance away from home - away from the elevation.
Now, they get to play their first two games in Denver, Colorado. VCU and Wisconsin already have inconsistencies shooting the ball, so advantage BYU. After that? A banged up Alabama team that is due for an early exit or a 7th seeded Saint Mary’s team.
Yes, the potential Duke, Arizona, or Oregon matchup would be a tall mountain to climb but I believe this Cougars team is the full package. At close to +2000 odds, this is the Final Four longshot future to place.