Let’s hope tonight’s game is much more exciting than the first one! With Curry sitting this one out, it’ll be interesting to see if Golden State can keep their momentum or if Minnesota can bounce back. Either way, this match is shaping up to be an incredible showdown, and Minnesota might find themselves in a tough spot at 0-2 as they head to Golden State for game three.
Rob Dillingham
Stephen Curry Out
Game one surprised everyone, as the Warriors completely overwhelmed the Timberwolves in Minnesota without Curry for most of the game. The Timberwolves couldn’t find the bottom of the basket to save their lives. Their three-point shooting was particularly poor. They didn’t make their first three-pointer until midway through the 3rd quarter. Something just seemed off with this group as they struggled to find any breathing room against the Golden State defense. Overall, this game rang some alarm bells for the Timberwolves, making tonight’s game critical for bouncing back.
The Timberwolves need to regain their outside shooting. They’ve experienced hit-or-miss shooting throughout the season, but the last game was a particularly poor outlier. A significant factor in that was how Golden State defended the perimeter. They played a physical, hands-on defense, not allowing anyone to get comfortable in their spots. They also swarmed the paint when Minnesota drove, forcing them into difficult shots. It was effective, leading to Gobert spending most of the game on the bench, minimizing their size disadvantage. Overall, this game highlighted the excellence of the Golden State defense; however, I don’t believe that excellence will persist.
The Timberwolves were one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, averaging nearly 38% from the arc this year. They were elite, so having them shoot 17% in game one doesn’t seem sustainable for Golden State. They can certainly continue to influence it, but the law of averages is likely to take effect, and we’ll see the Timberwolves shooting the leather off the ball.
A significant reason the Wolves struggled in the first half was some early foul trouble for Naz Reid. He might be the best matchup against the Warriors for all of Minnesota. His size, rebounding, and shooting ability make him challenging to deal with. So, when he picked up three early fouls, it forced Minnesota to either go small or rely on Rudy, who wasn’t effective. Heading into game two, keeping Reid out of foul trouble will be crucial for setting up the Timberwolves' offense. If they can learn anything from game one, they need to focus on the second half when the offense began to click. The guards started attacking the rim much more aggressively, which led to some easy buckets. Minnesota pulled within 9 points in the fourth before Hield iced the game. For the Wolves, that late-game success gives me some confidence going into tonight.
The Warriors, on the other hand, had hot hands all over the court. It felt like they couldn’t miss at times, even bad shots were falling. Hield, in particular, shined in the third quarter. He shot lights out and helped extend the Golden State lead into the 20s. If the Warriors are going to have a chance in the game tonight, they’ll need a repeat performance from Hield. With Curry out, scoring in general may become an issue. Green and Butler were making shots as well, but I’m not confident they’ll achieve the same level of success tonight. They’re going to have to win this game through their defense. If they can slow the pace, attack the rim to get to the line, and keep the score low, they’ll have a chance. They’re certainly capable of doing that, but against a younger, faster team like Minnesota, it still might not be enough.
Overall, I think the Timberwolves will rally back in game two. They demonstrated they could compete against the Warriors in that second half of game one. With the Warriors without Curry for the foreseeable future, I’m concerned that Golden State may lack the firepower to keep up in tonight's game.
Money line: GSW (+370) / MIN (-485)
Total Points: 201
Spread: +10.5 GSW (-110) / -10.5 MIN (-110)
With no Curry tonight, this is Buddy Hield’s moment to shine. We saw him come alive in the third quarter of game one, which turned a lead into a blowout victory over the Timberwolves. The Warriors will need his shooting, and he’ll likely have plenty of attempts tonight as one of the lead guards. After scoring 24 points and playing 40 minutes in game one following Curry’s injury, the over is looking extremely appealing.
I’m not sure what motivated Draymond in the first game, but he seemed to believe he could shoot threes. He attempted 10 from long range and made 4. It’s unlikely we’ll see that level of shooting from him again, but with limited offensive options, the odds for the over look solid.
Gobert wasn’t particularly impactful in game one. Golden State did everything they could to keep him away from the rim, even if some tactics weren’t exactly legal. After the game, the Timberwolves submitted a complaint regarding how Golden State was playing on Gobert and limiting his movement on the court. This might have contributed to his limited 26 minutes in the blowout loss. However, he still managed to grab 11 rebounds, so if the refs enforce stricter rules on Golden State’s defense, Gobert could have a much more significant game tonight. Even if nothing changes, Gobert is more than capable of getting 11 boards against a much smaller GS team.
We saw Edwards lock in on defense in game one, despite the blowout. Even though they were down 20 going into the fourth quarter, Edwards still logged 42 minutes. He is determined to stay on the court, giving him a great chance to snag some loose balls. He grabbed 3 in game one, and now with Curry out, Golden State’s playmaking might be a little sloppier. At +130 for the over, this line offers great value.