Well, after an epic run at home, the Warriors are up 3-1 against Houston, making tonight the first elimination game of the series. With the Rockets back on their home court and the stakes turned up to 11, we’ll see if this young Houston team has what it takes to bounce back in this series. Either way, this is going to be one of the best games of the night!
Jimmy Butler Probable
Jae’Sean Tate Out
This is it for Houston; they either win here tonight or they’re going to Cancún. After a heartbreaker of a loss in game four, the Warriors edged out the Rockets in the closest game of the series. However, Houston played well, and if only one or two things had gone differently down the stretch, they would have won that game. Regardless, they’re in a tough spot now, staring at elimination.
One of the biggest issues holding Houston back in this entire series has been their free-throw percentage. They’ve been getting to the line plenty, playing physical down low, grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds, and using their athleticism to beat guys to their spot. However, even when they do all that and are rewarded with shots, they’re missing. They haven’t shot over 70% from the line all series, and in two games, they were under 60%. That’s a significant point difference compared to the Warriors, who are hitting at least 80% most games. The Rockets left 12 points at the line on Monday—12! The game ended in a 3-point loss, which is frankly the most unacceptable part of this entire series. With how Houston has been shooting in this series, those are points they cannot afford to miss. Even when they shot well from the three-point line, like in game four, their offense still needs a little extra push.
For the Warriors, free throws are their bread and butter. Butler has gone 17-20 from the line all series by himself, which is why he keeps tearing Houston apart. His ability to get into the paint, find contact, and keep punishing Houston at the line has been the one thing Houston can’t figure out defensively. If the Warriors continue to push the ball down low and score at the rim or the line, Houston simply doesn’t have enough offense to keep up, especially with Curry looming on the outside, ready to drop a dagger three on their heads. The one area Houston does need to worry about is inside. Sengun managed to score 31 on them in game four. He’s been inconsistent this series, but he seems to have figured out the Warriors’ defense in that game. If they’re not able to box him out and keep him away from the offensive glass, he’ll be their biggest problem.
Overall, though, this feels like a game that Houston will be able to win. I think with Houston back home tonight, and having lost such a close game, they’ll rally back. Sitting on a 3-1 lead, I also think the Warriors won’t need to push as hard in this game. They’ll have home-court advantage again in game six and just need to win one of the next three to advance. Curry and Butler could finish them off tonight, but I doubt we’ll see this proud young Rockets roster roll over at all tonight. They’re going to keep the pressure at 110% even if they’re down by 30, so I’m not going to count them out of anything. Especially with Ime Udoku running the show, this is going to be one of the chippiest games of the season.
Money line: GSW (+150) / HOU (-180)
Total Points: 204
Spread: +4 GSW (-108) / -4 HOU (-180)
The Warriors have been quite dominant this series, but the Rockets are definitely capable of coming out strong and playing physically. This game could get intense with the Rockets feeling the pressure. The Warriors might want to wrap up the series tonight to keep their older roster fresh, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they struggle a bit. I have a feeling we’ll see Houston come out fired up and ready to secure a win tonight!
Houston has struggled to get points on the board. The only game they’ve gone over this line during the series was game four at 215. That took Houston shooting 47.8% from three. Considering we’re probably more likely to see Houston shoot 20% from three than 40% again, and the Warriors have been slowing down the pace, the under is looking a little safer tonight.
Grabbing +4 on the Warriors is a really smart choice! They’ve been great at keeping the scores low and controlling the pace. So, even if they fall behind, their talent for getting to the line and sinking those three-pointers should help keep this game tight.
This line looks a little low compared to what we’ve seen out of Jimmy in this series. In game one, he had 25, and in game four, 27, which were the only two games he was fully available for. Considering his ability to get Houston in the air, and himself to the free throw line, I like the over a lot at 20.5 points.
It’s been interesting not seeing much of Smith this series, as he’s averaging around 22 minutes each game. He’s definitely been solid on the court, yet he hasn’t really been a big offensive threat, although he has crossed this line twice so far. With tonight’s game back in Houston, I can picture him getting a little more playing time. Especially since this is an elimination game, his size will be super important to help keep the paint clear!
Sengun has truly been a pesky presence on defense throughout this series! He’s already racked up quite a few steals, managing to grab at least 2 in three of the four games we’ve seen so far. Given his impressive track record and the likelihood that he’ll be on the court for around 40 minutes again tonight, he definitely has a fantastic chance to snag 2 steals once more!
Podz had an absolutely remarkable game the other night in game four of the series! He went 6-11 from three, playing a key role in guiding the Warriors to a victory, especially with Curry having an off night. In the fourth quarter, he hit one of the most clutch shots of the game, and it’s clear that Podz has been earning his time on the court lately! That said, I noticed that his rebounding total is set a bit high for this game. Even with 40 minutes played in game four, he only grabbed 5 boards. In games two and three, he had even fewer, and game one was the only time he managed to get 6 or more boards. This line seems pretty safe tonight, particularly if Podz struggles to stay on the court.