Dallas is gearing up to take on the Kings in Sacramento for the 9 vs 10 Western Conference Play-In game! As Dallas works to turn around what has been a tough season, Sacramento finds themselves in a well-known battle for their playoff spot. With so much on the line in this crucial loser goes home game, these 48 minutes will be the last for one of these teams!
Jake LaRavia Out
Malik Monk Out
Anthony Davis Probable
Brandon Williams Questionable
Olivier-Maxence Prosper Out
The Mavericks were able to limp their way into the back half of the Play-In after a slew of injuries this year. However, with AD healthy again, this team is dangerous, with a surrounding roster that could be a challenge for Sacramento.
The Kings have had their fair share of hardships and controversy this year, too. Moving off of Fox, firing Mike Brown in the middle of the season, and reuniting LaVine and DeRozan. Things might not have gone to plan, but they still have a chance to salvage the season, and get a shot at making the playoffs.
For the Kings, shooting is going to be key in this game. We saw LaVine take over late this year, putting up a barrage of 30-point games. However, it was rarely enough, considering the Kings have allowed almost 120 points a game since March. Defense continues to be a weakness of this team. They finished the year in the bottom third of the league for defensive rating. With no lockdown defender or even a great point of attack defender, most of the Kings' games this year turn into foot races. That might be a winning strategy against the Mavs though.
The Mavs have been adrift since they lost Kyrie to a season-ending injury. You could say it’s been that way since the Luka trade, but they were at least competitive even after that. Now, they’re a ship without a captain. Anthony Davis is an excellent first mate, but he’s not the guy to take charge and lead the team. Now, the Mavericks are completely aimless, especially on offense. No one has stepped up as the reliable leading scorer. That’s going to be a problem going against the Kings.
The Mavericks are going to need some luck in this game. They’ll need some of their role players to step up and take a large scoring role. If they can get a solid 20+ night out of Hardy, Thompson, Marshall, or Washington, they’ll at least have a chance. However, this game basically rests on the back of AD. If he’s not scoring inside on Sabonis, who he should dominant, it’s just not going to happen for Dallas.
The Kings, on the other hand, just need to keep the scoring pressure high. With the way LaVine has been playing, he’s the Kings' best weapon against Dallas, going against Dinwiddie and Thompson. If the Kings can attack this Dallas backcourt all game, they should be able to find loads of high-quality shots inside. What may be a bit challenging will be the Dallas post defense. With Lively and AD down low, there will be a ton of pressure at the rim; however, with the midrange jump shooting of LaVine and DeRozan, it shouldn’t affect Sacramento too much.
Regardless, this game feels like one Sacramento should win. They have the scoring, the healthier roster, and homecourt advantage. Dallas has been a mess, on the other hand, and is lucky to even be here. I doubt either of these teams sneaks into the playoffs, but for tonight’s matchup, the Kings are the way to go betting-wise.
Money line: DAL (+160) / SAC (-192)
Total Points: 214
Spread: +4.5 DAL (-110) / -4.5 SAC (-110)
Sacramento has really stepped up as the more competent team as we head down the stretch! I find myself trusting their offense much more than the Mavericks. Sure, Dallas could come out and surprise everyone, and we all know that betting against Anthony Davis sucks, but with players like DeRozan, Sabonis, and LaVine, the Kings seem set to take this one home!
This is a challenging line to grapple with. It will hinge on Dallas' offensively. While their scoring has been a bit hit-or-miss over the last month, they’ve typically managed to reach that 214-point mark in most games. I'm feeling more confident about the Kings in this situation. All this line needs are DeRozan and LaVine contributing in the mid to upper 20s, and we should be in good shape!
It seems like Sacramento is really in a strong position for this game! Last time they faced the Mavs, they managed to take them down pretty decisively. Of course, the Mavs were missing AD then, which definitely keeps things interesting for this matchup. However, I don't think AD will be enough to get Dallas over the hill tonight.
With how LaVine looked at the end of the season, averaging 27 points a game in April, and going against a weak defensive backcourt, he should have plenty of room to pop tonight. The 24.5 line is a little higher than I would have expected, but I still think there is some room to work with here for the over!
Davis is unquestionably the defensive anchor for the Mavs. He’s had some insane nights full of blocks, with him snagging 7 blocks in the Mavs' last game against the Raptors. Considering AD won’t be on a minute restriction, and this game is a must-win, he may even get a bit more time on the court, which would help this line as well!
Murray will be a key part in winning the rebounding battle tonight. Even though Sabonis is one of the best in the league at rebounding, going against Lively and AD in the post won’t be easy. The Kings are going to need Murray to help crash the glass. Considering he’s consistently averaged around 6 boards a game all season makes this line solid.
Lively hasn’t quite shown his full potential since coming back from injury, but if he’s feeling healthy enough to take on a full workload, he definitely has what it takes to reach this number! Just the other night against Toronto, he grabbed 11 rebounds in just 18 minutes. 5 rebounds seems very achievable!