This is a must-win game for the Grizzlies tonight. They’re locked in a tight Western conference battle with 5 teams trying to avoid the play-in game. With the Timberwolves currently sitting at 8th, a game and a half behind the Grizzlies, who are in 6th, this could swing the entire playoff lineup. For the Timberwolves, this is their last chance to escape the play-in and potential climb to 6th.
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Zyon Pullin Out
Jaylen Wells Out
Brandon Clarke Out
We don’t usually get games this late in the season that matter this much, but with how evenly matched the West is this year, this game is massive. A win for either team will probably make or break their playoff hopes, considering how tight the seating is. Both of these teams have been hot down the stretch, too, with the Grizzlies winning their last three, and Minnesota just ending their five-game win streak on Tuesday against the Bucks. They’ve been playing some of their best basketball of the entire season with everything coming to a head tonight.
Minnesota will have an edge tonight despite being on the road. We’ve seen Anthony Edwards elevate what this team can do lately, and now that they’re completely healthy, this team is dangerous. We’ve really seen the role players step up too. Naz Reid, Randle, and Conley have all come together to fill the gaps. This is a scary group for Memphis to be going against.
Memphis has seen a surge from its role players, too. Bane, Edey, and Aldama have been the key contributors to raising the tides for this team. Allowing Morant and Jackson to sail smoothly to close out the year. Unfortunately for Memphis, they will be without Jaylen Wells for a while after a nasty fall after getting hit mid-air against the Hornets. With Wells not expected back this season, we’ll likely see Vince Williams, John Konchar, or Luke Kennard moved into the starting lineup tonight.
In terms of the matchup, the Wolves do have some advantages. They’ll be able to keep Ja away from the rim with Gobert, while Edwards picks him up at the point of attack. Defending Ja will be key in beating Memphis. He’s been on a run lately, averaging nearly 30 points since the beginning of March. If they’re able to force someone else in Memphis to pick up the bulk of the scoring, they’ll be in a great position.
It won’t be easy to slow down Ja, though. He’s been elite at getting downhill and attacking defense. His three-point shot has also been dropping, making him extremely dangerous whenever he has the ball in his hands. Pair his scoring with Bane spreading the floor and Jackson Jr playing some of the best basketball of his career, and you get a team that can challenge anyone.
However, my money is still on Minnesota. I like their defensive abilities and depth just a little more. Homecourt advantage does worry me a tad, but we’ve seen them winning three of their last four road games. With tonight being the last night of a five-game road trip, this could be the icy on top for an amazing run to close out the season.
Money line: MIN (-125) / MEM (+105)
Total Points: 231
Spread: -2 MIN (-110) / +2 MEM (-110)
The Wolves are just on a heater. They’ve been winning against good teams too, with wins against Denver and Detroit over the last two weeks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have been terrible against teams above 500. They’re 14-23 on the season, and they’ve been beating up on bad teams, going 33-9 against teams under 500. Considering the level of play we’re seeing out of Minnesota lately, this should be a game they can take easily.
This line feels about 10 points too high. Both of these teams have been scoring less as we inch closer to the end of the regular season. Especially with the defenders on both sides, this game will likely fall well short of the 231 mark.
This line is a little too close for me, but I’m still going with Minnesota. With only two points either way, I doubt this game ends within that margin. Even if Memphis does keep it close, two points in the NBA just isn’t worth betting on considering how close the odds are to the money line. Stick with the money line tonight!
Has been on a tear lately. He’s been hitting shots, attacking the basket, and getting to the line with ease. Tonight will be a little more challenging for him, considering JJJ will be guarding the paint, but Edwards can still put up a massive game. The over is looking solid tonight on his points.
Reid’s scoring will be invaluable tonight, going against the Memphis bench. His ability to add size and spread the floor should earn him plenty of shots tonight. Averaging 13 points in April and 12.5 in March, he’s averaged 24 points a game against Memphis this year as well. I expect another big night out of Naz to counter the size Memphis will throw against Minnesota tonight.
This might just be buying at the peak, but Edey has elevated his rebounding game late in this season. In the last four games, he’s had 16, 13, 21, and 19 boards. He’s averaging 17.3 rebounds in April, nearly double what he was averaging in March. Maybe it’s just a flash in the pan, but this line is worth the risk at even odds.
With Ja finding his mojo again, we’ve seen Bane’s assist number begin to drop. He’s averaging 5.4 assists per game, but in terms of night-to-night productions, he’s had far more games with 4 assists than over lately. The under on his assists has been hitting far more consistently.