Well, here we are, the first game since the Nuggets' ownership went nuclear and fired Michael Malone along with the entire front office. In one of the most stunning moves we’ve seen since the Kings fired Mike Brown earlier this year, which is ironic considering the Nuggets' opponent tonight. This might be a challenging game to call, but given how the Kings have played and what’s happening in Denver, this should be an intriguing matchup.
Jamal Murray Out
Jake LaRavia Out
Keegan Murray Questionable
Malik Monk Out
This is going to be a weird one. We’ve caught the Kings as they ascend on the back of Zach LaVine, all while the Nuggets try to reorganize themselves right before the playoffs. This has been a bizarre moment for the Nuggets as they’ve slid late this year. We saw tensions in the organization snap, as Michael Malone, one of the most tenured coaches in the league, was fire nearly a week before the end of the season. Now, we’ve seen coaches let go around this time of year, but not from a team that is still very much a competitive playoff team. So this will be the first look we get at the Nuggets since all this drama erupted.
With the Nuggets on a four-game losing streak and currently sitting 5th in the West, tied with three other teams with the same record, they need a win tonight. If they lose again, they could very well fall to 7th and find themselves in the play-in. This would be an absolute disaster for a team that only a week ago looked like a homecourt team in the playoffs. That’s the NBA for you; things can flip fast, and they certainly have for the other team playing in this game tonight.
The Kings have done a complete 180, but in a good way. They’re on a three-game win streak, have given themselves a one-game lead over Dallas for the homecourt spot in the nine-to-ten play-in game. With only a few games left, a win tonight would almost guarantee them home court for one of the most critical games of the season.
With the stakes high for both teams, we can expect some excellent basketball from these players. Of course, no one is entering this matchup hotter than Zach LaVine. He’s been shooting incredibly well from three-point range, he's on a mission to save this Kings season. Scoring 80 combined points in the last two games, he’s operated as a one-man offense alongside DeRozan. The Kings have turned a corner offensively, and if they can maintain these impressive scores, they’ll have a strong chance of winning tonight
However, the Nuggets are no joke. Even though they are on a losing streak, they still have Jokic, which is never an easy matchup. Jokic has been particularly effective at dominating the Kings in their last few games. With Sabonis as the main line of defense, Jokic has operated out of the post with ease as he runs the Denver offense.
This game is truly going to come down to how hot the Kings still are. We’ve seen the Nuggets struggle offensively with Jamal Murray out. Jokic is giving it all he’s got, but with Porter in a shooting slump, Gordon hitting or missing, and the role players ineffective most nights, it’s been too much for him to carry. Now travelling to Sacramento, and potentially getting into a rock fight with the Kings, the Nuggets may be in trouble.
The Kings should take this game tonight if they can channel even half their offensive efficiency from the last three games. If LaVine and DeRozan are hitting their jump shots, I don’t see a ton the Nuggets can do to keep up. Jokic will likely dominate in the post regardless, but considering the state of the Nuggets, I don’t expect a bounce-back game for them tonight. I’m sticking with Sac.
Money line: DEN (-180) / SAC (+150)
Total Points: 234.5
Spread: -4 DEN (-112) / +4 SAC (-108)
Sacramento has been a scoring machine. Yes, it’s taken some elite nights out of LaVine, but he’s a guy that can get hot, and stay hot for a while. The matchup against the Nuggets will be a challenge, especially if Gordon is out on LaVine, but there is still so much offense left on the Kings. I expect this game to turn into a foot race of who can get to 120 points first, which the Kings are much more poised to accomplish.
This line is just a little too high for where these teams are. Even with LaVine putting up massive numbers, the Kings' games were still not going this high. Considering the offense of the struggles of Denver, the under is looking very solid.
With the spread at +4, it does give Sacramento a little buffer in case they lose in a close game. However, I still prefer the money line for +150. It looks a little better, but this isn’t a bad hedge if you’re looking to toss it in a parlay or something.
How can you not take this line today? LaVine has been on a rampage while the Nuggets have been spiraling. LaVine, in his last two games, has shot 15/25 from three. Obviously, he won’t sustain those numbers, but with the line only at 22.5 points, he doesn’t need to. Scoring 43, 37, and 25 over his last three games, betting on the LaVine hot streak to continue looks like the move tonight!
This is going to be an interesting line. With Malone now gone, we could see the Nuggets turn to Pickett more, but I think they will still stick with Westbrook tonight in the starting lineup with Murray out. If that’s the case, Westbrook has a solid chance to grab 5 rebounds. He’s averaging 5 per game this season and hasn’t had fewer than 5 rebounds against the Kings in their last three matchups. I like this line with plus odds.
I usually never do this, but I’m doubling down on Lavine tonight. The three-pointers made line seems incredibly low for what he’s been doing. Even if he slumps back to his average tonight, he’s been hitting at such a high rate that we’ll probably still see him with 10 attempts tonight. So even if he drops to 30% shooting from three, that still hits on the line. I feel confident in LaVine tonight, especially with everything happening in Denver.
Jokic has been a master of moving the ball per usual this year. This line is a little high, I’d like it a little more if it were at 9.5, considering Jokic only has one game in his last ten that he’s had 11+ assists in, but it’s the matchup against the Kings I like. He’s had 11+ assists in two of their three games. With the Kings' defense still being porous, he should be able to beat them and feed his guys high-quality shots like usual.