The Hawks are in Dallas for the second night of a back-to-back after being defeated by Portland in Atlanta. Facing a Dallas squad desperately trying to hold onto a play-in spot, this should be an intriguing matchup. We’ll see the young core of Atlanta battle against the veteran-laden Mavericks in their final matchup of the season.
Dereck Lively II Questionable
Caleb Martin Probable
Anthony Davis Probable
Dante Exum Out
Jacob Toppin Questionable
Keaton Wallace Out
Larry Nance Jr Out
Well, this game might not impact any of the top playoff seeding, but these teams are still set for some postseason action. The Mavericks are desperately holding onto the 9th seed in the West, with the Kings right behind them. It looks like they’ll at least get a chance to enter the playoffs despite one of the most controversial and disappointing NBA seasons on record.
For Atlanta, they are also locked into the play-in game, but they are in a shootout with Orlando for home-court advantage in the seven-eight matchup. With both teams treading on thin ice and their playoff hopes hanging in the balance, this game matters more than most late-season contests.
Atlanta is at a disadvantage tonight, though. This is the second night of a back-to-back, traveling from Atlanta to Dallas last night. They lost to Portland in what was a surprisingly uncompetitive game. The Portland wings were able to tear Atlanta apart while none of their threes seemed to find paydirt. Overall, this showed one of the biggest weaknesses of Atlanta: their inconsistency.
With such a young core, most of whom are under 25 years old, they’re a difficult team to predict. Some nights the three-pointers are falling, the defense is focused, and everything looks easy. That was not the case last night, and entering this game on the road with the disadvantage of fatigue is not ideal.
For Dallas, this season has obviously been tumultuous. Injuries, trades, and other controversies have completely derailed this team after their finals run last year. With so much of their scoring unavailable tonight, this could be a challenging matchup for Dallas, even with AD.
The one bright spot for Dallas has been their role players. Marshall, Gafford, Klay, Hardy, and Dinwiddie have all had their moments recently. With so many options, this team can still be dangerous even with AD looking like 60% of himself. They’ll need everyone they can get tonight, though, as this young Atlanta squad can be unpredictable night to night.
Even though Portland dominated Atlanta, there's something about this team that I believe in for this matchup. They have the athletes on this roster to legitimately challenge Dallas. We’ve seen Risacher and Okongwu both make significant strides lately, with Trae and Daniels maintaining their excellence. Even the Atlanta bench has found a few moments here and there.
Overall, I think the youth of Atlanta gives them an advantage tonight. If they can simply keep the pace high, shoot better than they did last night, and hassle the Mavericks on the perimeter, they should have a decent shot at winning. Of course, we might see another performance like last night, but I believe they’ll be focused on the road today. They’re my pick to win it.
Money line: ATL (+140) / DAL (-166)
Total Points: 240.5
Spread: +4 ATL (-110) / -4 DAL (-110)
Well, after a hard loss to Portland last night, the Hawks should be able to bounce back against the Mavericks. They have the personnel to run with the Mavs all night, and if the threes go down smoother than they did last night, they should be able to outpace Dallas. With such a young core group of stars in Atlanta, it can be hard to find consistency with them, but that’s why I like them tonight. Dallas is still diminished, even with AD back, whose defense is still completely decimated from injuries. Unless one of the Dallas role players steps up, like Marshall or Dinwiddie, they’ll struggle to keep up on the scoreboard tonight.
Looking at the last few games for these teams and scoring has been an issue. Last night against Portland, Atlanta couldn’t find anything from range, and Dallas has been up and down scoring as well. With such a high total, the under is looking solid considering the scoring variance of these teams.
Atlanta is simply the more fun team to support tonight. Their volatility makes them a dangerous opponent every night, as this young core can spontaneously combust at any moment. Considering Trae has also been elite at finding the open man, all Atlanta needs to do tonight is hit a few more shots, and this line should be well within reach!
We’re going to keep riding this line all the way to the end of the season. Trae has been remarkably effective at moving the ball. He is now on a five-game streak of exceeding the over on this assist line. Going against a weakened Dallas squad should provide him plenty of opportunities to make passes all night!
This could be the game to hedge against AD. Since returning from his injury, AD hasn’t grabbed more than 7 rebounds in any game. Facing Okongwu in the post should give him a size advantage, but we’ll see if AD surprises us here, or if the trend continues against Atlanta. However, with favorable odds, this line isn’t looking too bad
Okongwu has performed well as the full-time starter, but tonight will present a significant challenge facing AD. It’s not as if Okongwu has been lighting up the scoreboard either; he’s averaging 13 points per game this year, and just above 15 for March. Considering the size of Dallas, Okongwu may find it difficult to reach 15 points tonight.
Christie hasn’t been a deadeye by any means this year, but he’s a competent shooter. Averaging 1.6 made threes a game in March, he is capable of hitting this line. He’s hit two threes in nine of his games in March, which is a little over half of the games he played last month. With the plus odds at +160, this is a fun line if you’re looking for a little flair.