Portland continues their road trip in Atlanta, taking them on for the final time this year. With both teams seeing impressive leaps from their young guys, this should be an interesting game as the season winds down.
Anfernee Simons Questionable
Deandre Ayton Out
Scoot Henderson Out
Jerami Grant Doubtful
Robert Williams Out
Jacob Toppin Out
Keaton Wallace Out
Trae Young Probable
Larry Nance Jr Out
Clint Capela Out
Atlanta is the clear favorite in this game. We’ve seen some nice strides from Risacher and Okongwu, with Trae leading the way. It’s been a pleasant development for a team I thought was about to call it quits after the trade deadline. Instead, they’ve surged ahead to snag the 7th seed in the East. Of course, this team doesn’t have high hopes for their postseason appearance, but the trajectory of this team is much more intriguing than it has been.
For Portland, this game likely doesn’t matter. With a four-game gap between them and the 10th spot, their postseason hopes have vanished. However, similar to Atlanta, the youth movement in Portland has flourished. Deni Avdija has been the player to watch as his game continues to evolve. He scored 33 points against the Knicks on Sunday while averaging 23 points per game in March. Alongside Avdija, Donovan Clingan and Toumani Camara have also made significant strides, blossoming into reliable role players. The future looks promising for both teams.
Even with both of these teams trending upward in terms of their rosters, this game probably won’t be very competitive. There is a strong chance Portland is about to shut everyone down and tank the rest of the season. With the 8th best draft odds within reach, it makes more sense for them to call it quits on their remaining 7 games. For Atlanta, that probably means they’ll see a fair amount of Portland’s backups, but they’ll still need to win the game. Portland’s backups, along with Avdija, can be lethal if given space to operate. The Hawks will have to slow Portland down in transition and force them into their half-court offense. If they can do that and Portland pulls some starters early, Atlanta should run away with this one.
Atlanta appears poised for a strong performance tonight, even with -205 odds on the money line. Anticipate them to dominate in the second half, especially if Portland begins to bench some of their starters.
Money line: POR (+170) / ATL (-205)
Total Points: 238
Spread: +5.5 POR (-112) / -5.5 ATL (-108)
This should be a game that Atlanta can win. This game still has meaning to them as they look at a post-season run here. Portland, on the other hand, is better off tanking the remainder of the season with the play-in game out of reach now. With Portland already dealing with a sizeable number of injuries, don’t be surprised if they pull players early tonight. This should be an easy game for Atlanta to win.
The under is looking relatively safe tonight. At 238, that’s a sizeable amount of points considering Portland hasn’t been scoring the ball effectively. Portland has only had one game out of their last ten that has gone above this line. Unless Atlanta blows out Portland, there is an excellent chance the score stays under this line.
Atlanta is the favorite for a reason tonight. They’ve been playing some decent basketball lately, and have seen some leaps from their young guys. If they’re able to hit their three ball well and slow down Portland in transition, they’ll take this game easily. With the spread at only -5.5 points, Atlanta feels like the safe bet.
We’ve recently seen Risacher's scoring become much more potent, highlighted by a massive game against the Bucks on Sunday. He managed to score 36 points, hitting 5 of 11 from three-point range. Averaging 16 points per game in March, he has become much more reliable from the floor. With the line set at 14.5, the over looks solid against a declining Trail Blazers team.
Avdija has been terrific lately; he’s had several massive scoring nights, but tonight might be more challenging. Atlanta has some size, and with injuries draining Portland of their talent, Avdija will likely face more resistance than usual. In addition to less support, fatigue could be an issue with this being the third stop on their road trip, and Avdija playing 41 minutes against the Knicks. Don’t expect him to get a similar run tonight as Portland switches into tank mode for the remainder of the season.
This line is such a toss-up. If they stick with Clingan for the entire game, he’ll likely hit the 10 rebound mark, but lately, they’ve been pulling him early. With his size advantage over Onyeka Okongwu he’ll have no problem getting 10 boards if he plays at least 28 minutes. Averaging nearly 10 boards a game in March, this is still a solid line.
Trae has only gotten better at moving the ball as the year goes on. Of course, a big part of that has to do with his teammates like Risacher making their shots too, but when they do, Trae is a lock for 10+ assists. He’s had over 11 assists in the last four games. With Portland beginning to wrap up their season and pull players, Trae should have plenty of opportunity to continue the streak tonight!