Minnesota and Denver tip off for the fourth time this year in a lopsided series so far, with the Timberwolves remaining undefeated. Denver will try to change that today with multiple players on Minnesota suspended, this could be Denver’s chance to close the series out on a high note!
Terrence Shannon Jr Out
Naz Reid Suspended
Donte DiVincenzo Suspended
Christian Braun Probable
Aaron Gordon Questionable
Nikola Jokic Probable
Jamal Murray Questionable
This should be one of the best games of the night. Both of these teams need this win. Denver only has a narrow one-game lead over the Lakers to maintain their position in third. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are only a half game out of sixth, which would get them out of the play-in game. With so few games remaining, these last matches are critical.
The Timberwolves have dominated the Nuggets this year, winning all three of their previous matchups. This Minnesota squad has Denver’s number. However, they will be missing a couple of key players due to an altercation the other night. With Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo out tonight, the Wolves are thin, which could give the Nuggets a chance.
For the Nuggets to win this game, they have to capitalize on their long-range shooting against Minnesota. In all three of their previous matchups, the Wolves have outshot Denver by over 10%. They need to narrow that margin. Attacking the interior will be crucial too, especially with Reid sidelined. If Denver can get the ball to Jokic and draw some early fouls on Gobert, it will likely open up the paint significantly. Overall, though, they just need to contain Edwards tonight. They have to throw everything they have at him and force someone else on Minnesota to beat them.
Minnesota, on the other hand, just needs to keep doing what they’re doing. A big part of that is hitting their three-pointer and attacking the rim. Edwards has been fantastic at driving downhill, which creates opportunities for others like Randle or McDaniels. Ultimately, it’s been Edwards' three-point shooting that has been the main game changer in these matchups. If he’s hitting again tonight, it may be difficult for Denver to keep up with him.
Ultimately, this game will hinge on shooting. Denver has struggled with their shooting in past matchups against Minnesota, whereas the Wolves have consistently shot above 42% from beyond the arc. If Denver can improve their shooting or at least contain Edwards on the perimeter, they’ll have a chance; however, Minnesota appears to be the stronger pick tonight.
Money line: MIN (+130) / DEN (-155)
Total Points: 232.5
Spread: +3.5 MIN (-112) / -3.5 DEN (-108)
I’m sticking with the trends tonight. Minnesota has won the last three games for a reason. They have the tools to affect Denver defensively, and the offensive weapons to overwhelm. Gobert might be one of the few players who can realistically even slow down Jokic. With several key players on Denver questionable to play tonight, the plus money on Minnesota is looking great!
We’ve seen a decent amount of scoring from both of these teams lately, but the 232.5 mark seems a bit high. They have barely hit this line in two of their last three games, and with the season nearing its end and fatigue setting in, both teams have consistently fallen below this total.
Considering how the Wolves have won their last few games, they’ll likely keep it close if they don’t win. Edwards and Randle have also been playing excellent basketball lately, so I believe they can take this one in Denver. The additional 3.5 point buffer for them losing a close game is a nice safety net if you’re willing to pass on the plus odds on the money line.
Edwards has been a beast against Denver. In all three of their past matchups, he’s had over 29 points. With a few players on Denver questionable, and a few others on Minnesota suspended, Edwards will likely be the key player tonight. This line should cover if he can keep hitting his threes like he has been.
Porter Jr. has struggled to score consistently all year. Throughout March, he was up and down but ultimately averaged 16 points per game. However, against Minnesota, he’s struggled even more, with two out of the three games against them finishing with him under 12 points. Betting under 17.5 looks fairly solid considering the matchup.
With Naz Reid out, we’ve seen Gobert dominating the rebounds. In their last game, he recorded 25 rebounds. Considering he’ll be facing Jokic the entire game and lacking a backup big, Gobert will be on the court long enough to easily get 11.5 rebounds.
This is the flyer bet of the night. Jokic has been effective at getting steals, and without Naz Reid to spread the floor against him, Jokic will likely get to stay in the paint all night on defense. With his ability to intercept passes or poke the ball free in the midrange, two steals feel very achievable tonight.