It’s been a while since these teams last faced each other in early January! Now, the Rockets are making their way to LA to take on the Lakers, who are closely chasing them for the second seed in the West. With tonight's game and one more game left between these two teams, the battle for second place could be settled in these matchups!
LeBron James Probable
Maxi Kleber Out
None
With only a few games remaining, this match presents a crucial opportunity for the Lakers to improve their standings. They currently hold the 4th seed in the West, trailing both Denver and Houston. With tonight's game and another matchup against Houston on April 11, the Lakers can potentially close that gap. However, this task won't be easy, as the Rockets have been on an impressive run as the season winds down, playing some of their best basketball.
Even though Houston is the underdog in this game, they don’t look like it. This group has all the characteristics of a team that can beat the Lakers. They have size, post scoring, and hustle to challenge a star-studded Lakers group. This is going to be a challenging game for the Lakers.
For the Lakers to have a shot they’ll have to do it on the defensive end. Even though they lack consistent size in the post to defend the rim, this group has been surprising good defensively. The defense will need to force the Rockets out of the paint and into jump shots. If they can do that, and then box out Houston to prevent second chance points from offensive rebounds, they’ll significantly cut into Houston’s offense.
Overall, Houston looks like an excellent underdog pick tonight. They’ve already notched one win over the Lakers this year. With the roster healthy and these rotations locked in on Houston, they have all the momentum rolling into this matchup. Unless we see an outstanding shooting night out of LA, Houston has all the tools to win this game.
Money line: HOU (+142) / LAL (-170)
Total Points: 223.5
Spread: +4 HOU (-112) / -4 LAL (-108)
Even with Houston on the road tonight, they’ve been the more competitive team lately. With the way Green has been scoring and the full roster being healthy, they’ve been elite. Getting plus odds on the money line feels like great value for a team that has only lost one game since March 6th. The Lakers have faced difficulties, particularly at home, but I can easily envision Houston overpowering them.
We’ve seen some elite scoring out of these teams. The Lakers have had over 223.5 in eight of their last ten games. Even in the games they’ve lost, they’ve allowed teams to put up over 118 in most cases. With how Houston is scoring the ball over this win streak, it seems like they’ll be able to push into the 120 range tonight, so all we need to see is the Lakers to break 100 points to have an excellent shot at this line.
Houston seems like the stronger take on the spread. Their only loss over this win streak was by 5 points to Denver. With LA playing so well at home, this game could be close, and even if Houston falls short, getting +4 on the spread will likely cover.
We’ve seen Reaves explode over the last couple of games with back-to-back games over 30 points. Tonight he’ll face a strong defensive group, but as the third scoring option, and a 21-point line for the over, this is highly doable for Reaves. He's averaging 24 points a game in March and 20 a game for the season, this line feels low in comparison.
Sengun has been a solid passer out of the post lately. Averaging 4.9 assists on the year, he’s been one of the better big men at moving the ball. However, going against the Lakers tonight, he’ll likely have a large advantage scoring in the post against Hayes. Sengun should see plenty of shots at the rim, which will likely reduce the number of passes he’s making.
Even though Luka has been lighting it up offensively, he’s been solid at collecting steals too. On the Lakers, he’s averaging about 1.7 steals a game, with most nights Luka coming away with at least two. Tonight should be no different, going against a young Houston group that is averaging 14 turnovers a game. Luka should have a decent shot at snagging two steals at least.
LeBron has upped his rebounding, especially in games like the one tonight! When facing a tough rebounding center, like Sengun, he steps up his intensity. In fact, he snagged 13 rebounds the last time these teams faced off, even with AD still on the roster. As rebounding continues to become a bigger focus for the team, LeBron is in a fantastic position to grab at least 8 boards tonight!