Houston has surged back to the second spot in the West recently after a massive win streak that only ended on Sunday against the Nuggets. Now they’re traveling to Atlanta to take on a feisty Hawks team. The Hawks have had their ups and downs, but they’ve been looking solid over the last two weeks, making this a sneaky fun matchup.
Keaton Wallace Out
Trae Young Out
Jacob Toppin Questionable
Clint Capela Out
Reed Sheppard Out
Things looked like they may be over for Houston earlier this year. Injuries pulled this group down as they struggled to find themselves. However, with VanVleet healthy, they’ve found their early-season mojo again. They were one game away from having their win streak hit the double digits, but the Nuggets stole that opportunity away. Regardless, the Rockets have been red hot to close out this season, but so has Atlanta.
Atlanta has won seven of their last ten games, climbing the Eastern Conference standings to seventh. This late-season run has come as a bit of a surprise considering some of their midseason moves. Losing Johnson to injury, then trading away Hunter and Bogdanović, it looked like they were wrapping things up for the season. However, Trae Young was having none of it, as he’s kicked into overdrive to help elevate this group. We’ve seen Trae manhandling defenses, creating opportunities for his teammates left and right. This has lead to a few players breaking out late in the season, especially Risacher and Okongwu. Adding both of those players full-time to the starting lineup has opened up the offense and brought a spark to Atlanta. Even the bench has been excellent with LeVert and Mann putting in excellent minutes. This Hawks team remains dangerous.
The matchup should be intriguing. The Rockets continue to hold a significant advantage in rebounding this year, while their shooting numbers remain below average. Even with Jalen Green averaging over 20 points a game in March, his field goal percentage is below 40%. The efficiency of Houston's offense has been a weakness all year, but through sheer hustle, they’re able to outwork every team. Their rebounding is the key to their success. They lead the league in total rebounds per game and offensive rebounds per game. However, that may be a bit more challenging tonight.
Atlanta has been a respectable rebounding team all year. Okongwu and Dyson Daniels have been terrific on the boards. If they can even out the rebounding battle, the Hawks will have a great chance to stay in this game. That’s exactly what Denver did to them on Sunday to end the Rockets streak.
Houston still has an exceptional amount of talent on the team, though. With depth at almost every position that Atlanta can't match along with size, there is a reason they’re still second in the West. They should have the advantage tonight even on the road. Sengun should be able to take on the smaller Okongwu in the post, while the forwards attack the paint against less experienced wings. This should be a game that Houston can win, but expect it to be close!
Money line: ATL (+260) / HOU (-320)
Total Points: 235.5
Spread: +8 ATL (-108) / -8 HOU (-112)
The Rockets have been a tough team to play lately. After VanVleet returned from injury, this team started to take shape again. They need their veteran play caller to keep this young group flowing. Atlanta has managed to win a few games lately, but Houston looks too deep for Atlanta to keep up the whole game. I still think this will be a closer game than the books expect, but Houston is the safe pick tonight.
Atlanta is in the top 5 in the league for points per game. They tend to score a bunch, but give up a ton of points too. Considering the level of scoring we’ve seen out of Houston lately, this game could spiral early, especially if teams are hitting their threes!
We have not seen Houston blowing teams out during their late-season streak. They’ve had a couple, but over the last two weeks, they’ve been much closer. The Hawks, on the other hand, have been a tough team to beat, especially at home. So don’t expect them to roll over this game.
Trae has been a playmaking machine this year. With his shot not falling, he’s done an excellent job of running the offense on fewer attempts. He’s averaging 11 assists a game in March, with only three games this month under 10 assists. With that level of consistency, this is an easy take.
This line will be all about minutes. When Smith finds the court for 25+ minutes, he’s been fairly consistent about getting 6+ rebounds. He’s average over 6 rebounds a game in March, and with Capela out, Smith should have the size advantage to collect a fair number of boards tonight.
We’ve seen Risacher grow tremendously over this season. Starting out a bit shaky behind some more experienced talent, his time in the starting lineup has helped him find his shot. Shooting 42% from three in March, averaging 2.5 made threes a game, the 1.5 mark is excellent value.
Green has upped his scoring, but not efficiently. We’re seeing him average 20 points a game in March, shooting under 40% from the field. However, he’s been putting up some solid scoring numbers. His ability to get to the line and the sheer number of shots he has may push him above the 23-point mark. He’s hit that total six of the last seven games, so he’ll have an excellent opportunity to hit it again tonight.