The Nuggets are in Portland as they take on the Trail Blazers for the final time this season. With only a handful of games left, the post-season is looming as teams continue to jockey for position. The Nuggets are locked in a tight race to secure a home-court seed, while Portland’s dream of the play-in is still possible. This game should be interesting.
Christian Braum Probable
Jamal Murray Questionable
Aaron Gordon Probable
Nikola Jokic Out
Julian Strawther Out
Jabari Walker Out
Deandre Ayton Out
Jerami Grant Doubtful
Robert Williams Out
Portland is catching a break tonight with the Nuggets down Jokic and possibly Jamal Murray. We’ve seen the Nuggets without Jokic for the last couple of games, which they’ve split with a loss to the Lakers and a win over Golden State. This group remains competitive. Russell Westbrook has shown he still has something left in the tank with a triple-double against the Warriors. By no means are the Nuggets out of this game tonight just because Jokic is out.
The Nuggets have a lot on the line tonight. With the Lakers and Grizzlies breathing down their neck for the 3rd seed in the West, this game is big. If they lose tonight, they could slip to fifth, losing their homecourt advantage. So don’t expect to see the Nuggets taking it easy.
Portland, on the other hand, has been thrown a bone. The Mavericks and the Suns can’t seem to kill Portland’s play in hopes officially. Sitting at the 12th spot in the West, they’re only separated from the play-in by 2 games. A win tonight would be a massive lift towards closing that gap. With an extremely tough stretch of games coming up, every night will matter for this young group trying to prove themselves.
The matchup between these two will be intriguing. Without Jokic, these teams should match up well, with Portland having plenty of size to toss at Denver. That size could be critical, with Aaron Gordon leading the way on offense with Jokic out. He’s been a force attacking the rim, getting to the line, and hitting threes. However, Portland will likely have Avdija, Camara, and Clingan tonight, all three of which can be a thorn in the side of Gordon.
Jamal Murray will be the wild card. Listed as questionable, he may be the key for the Nuggets. His scoring has been critical with Jokic out; he’s averaging 22.8 points a game in March. Without him, the team will have to lean on Braun and Westbrook to carry the backcourt.
Overall, Portland will have the advantage tonight. They’re deeper with players who can effectively match up against Denver’s starting lineup. If they can stay in front of the Nuggets while limiting turnovers, this is a game they can win. With how the core group of Avdija, Simons, Clingan, and Camara have been playing, they’ve been a truly dangerous team. As for Denver, they’ll have a shot in this game if they can hit their threes and build out a lead early. They’ll need to take the wind out of Portland’s sails early and keep the crowd out of the game. Either way, though, this is going to be an impactful game for both of these team's playoff aspirations!
Money line: DEN (+100) / POR (-120)
Total Points: 227
Spread: +1.5 DEN (-110) / -1.5 POR (-110)
Portland has a few significant advantages tonight. Specifically, Jokic is out. Beyond that, though, this is Denver’s third away game in four days. Having played the Lakers and Warriors before Portland, they’ll be a little weary going against this young, rested Portland team. If Portland can keep the pace high while attacking the rim, they’ll have a terrific shot at knockoff Denver tonight.
The scoring can be fairly hit or miss from Portland, and with no Jokic, we’ve seen the points total for Denver plummet as well. Considering the Nuggets will be relying on Westbrook and Gordon to carry the scoring load tonight against a respectable Portland defense might be asking for too much. Unless one or both sides shoot lights out from three, the under is a good bet tonight.
With the spread so close to the money line odds, just ignore it. Either way you look at it, sacrificing a few points just to take the money line is worth it because if the game is down to the wire, 1.5 points isn’t going to do much either way. If you’re going to take it, go with the Portland -1.5 line.
Avdija has been elite in this final stretch of the season. Shooting 47% from three in March, Avdija has elevated into one of Portland’s best scorers. Tonight, he’ll have a changing matchup with Aaron Gordon down low, but this line is extremely achievable.
Gordon has consistently taken over as the lead scorer when the Nuggets are down Jokic. With Jokic missing the last couple of games, he’s scored 26 and 38 while averaging 22 points a game in March. This Portland lineup may be slightly more challenging, but he’ll likely be able to attack the rim and get to the line tonight.
We’re going to keep riding the Clingan rebounding line again. He’s been over 10 rebounds in his last 4 games while averaging a touch over 10 rebounds a game in March. With Jokic out tonight, he’ll have plenty of time in the paint to grab boards.
Westbrook has been an excellent stopgap player for the Nuggets. With guys out again tonight, he’ll likely get plenty of runs, and if there is one thing Westbrook can do, it’s fill up a box score. He’s had 9+ assists in their three last games as the lead guard, including a triple-double against the Warriors. With plus money on this line, this looks like a winner.