Milwaukee is on its way to taking on one of the hottest teams in the West, the Golden State Warriors. As the end of the regular season fast approaches, these remaining games matter for playoff seating, with both teams locked in a battle to secure their spot in the playoffs.
Damian Lillard Probable
Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable
Gary Trent Jr Probable
Jericho Sims Out
Brandin Podziemski Questionable
The Warriors’ win streak ended last night when they lost to the Nuggets without Jokic. They struggled to convert on their three-point attempts, hitting only 24%. It seemed like one of those off nights, but it is worrying. Some vulnerabilities have surfaced with a lack of offense outside of the three-ball or getting to the line. Their inability to match up against Aaron Gordon became a problem. He was basically unstoppable as he went for 38 points last night to lead the Nuggets to the win. Now, the Warriors have to face off against the better version of Gordon in Giannis.
Giannis and the Bucks have been solid but have struggled against better competition. They have an 11-17 record against teams with a 500 or better record. The Bucks are great at beating lower-tier teams, and there are plenty of them in the East this year. However, they have the tools to challenge Golden State tonight.
Giannis will be the most significant issue for the Warriors to figure out. They lack the size to throw in front of him while they run out of these small-ball lineups. We have seen a little more of Quinten Post, the 7-footer out of Boston College, but expecting a second-round rookie to slow down Giannis is a fool's errand.
For the Warriors to have a shot in this one, they’ll have to spread Milwaukee out and hit their jump shots. The three-ball will be invaluable today, as the Warriors will likely struggle to get the ball into the paint tonight. The Warriors do have one strength this game that Milwaukee can’t match: their bench. With how Buddy Hield and Gary Payton III have looked, they’ll be able to push the Milwaukee bench all night.
Regardless, Milwaukee is the stronger bet tonight. If the Bucks can utilize their size advantage with Giannis, Kuzma, and Lopez, they should get some high-quality shots inside tonight. Again, considering what the Warriors looked like against Gordon, Giannis could rip through Golden State. Unless Golden State is hitting at a high rate from three or drawing 30+ shots at the line, the Bucks should be able to take this game.
Money line: MIL (-115) / GSW (+130)
Total Points: 227.5
Spread: -3 MIL (-112) / +3 GSW (-108)
Looking back at the last time these teams played, Golden State took it in Milwaukee by 14 points. Although, the Bucks didn’t have Giannis in that game, so it’s hard to use that game as an accurate prediction for tonight. With Giannis likely playing tonight, I expect to see the limitations of this Golden State small ball system.
In the last game between these teams, they hit this number, even without Giannis. The final score was 236, with both teams shooting sub 31% from three. Scoring wasn't an issue even with how ugly that last game was. The only worry for this line is if the shots don’t fall and the refs swallow their whistle, with 55 points of their previous match coming from free throws alone. However, there was a ton of margin between the end score of their last game and the line for tonight, this over is looking promising.
Milwaukee should win this game by a narrow margin. Although the Warriors may keep it competitive, the small spread makes betting on the Bucks the better move.
Giannis may have struggled the other night against OKC, but he’ll have a great chance to turn it around today. We saw Golden State get ripped to shreds by Aaron Gordon, who dropped 38 points last night in San Fransico. With Giannis being the same type of athlete but turbo-charged, he could run straight through this small Golden State lineup.
Moody has found another gear late this year. The addition of Butler has unlocked something in him as he’s played with a different level of confidence. He’s been much more willing to shoot and score lately, with him scoring 2 or more threes in 6 of the last 9 games. Even though the odds aren’t amazing, this is a solid bet.
Kuzma hasn’t been a rebounding machine since he landed in Milwaukee. He has been consistently landing under the 7 rebound mark, only averaging 5.9 in March. Competing for boards with Lopez and Giannis will probably keep this trend going. The under 6.5 line looks solid, considering both Giannis and Lopez are expected to play tonight.
Butler has been an excellent Swiss Army knife for this team. His basketball IQ has fits in perfectly with this fast, mobile offense of the Warriors. Going against a much larger team in Milwaukee, expect to see Jimmy moving the ball more than usual tonight. He’s already averaging 6 assists this month, so this line has an excellent chance to hit.