Neither of these teams have been having a great time lately. Phoenix has slipped out of the play in the game, while Memphis has lost close game after close game. It’s been a rough year for both sides, as they both came in with high expectations. The injury bug, poor fit, and some regression have lowered the ceiling of these teams considerably. However, tonight will be a fun matchup with both of these groups evenly matched.
Cody Martin Out
Monte Morris Questionable
Luke Kennard Questionable
Santi Aldama Questionable
Jaren Jackson Jr Out
Phoenix has been a disaster for weeks now. They’ve split out of the playoff picture entirely as they try to crawl back into the play-in-the-game. Sitting at 11th in the West, things are bleak for a team with some real star power. Booker, Beal, and Durant have been one of the best-scoring trios in the league, however, with how thin the roster is after those three, it hasn’t mattered. Their defense has been terrible, with the center rotation turning into a disaster. They had to send a first out to get Nurkic off the team, and now they’re relying on Bol Bol and Nick Richards to hold down the fort. That’s gone about as well as you’d expect.
Memphis, on the other hand, has hit a patch of bad luck. Losing three extremely close games in the final seconds has put their homecourt playoff seed in jeopardy. With Jaren Jackson Jr out for a week plus, they’ve been forced to dig deep on the roster. Relying on multiple rookies to keep the ship afloat. With Ja Morant still not looking like himself most nights, this roster has taken some big hits. Luckily for them, they’ve had the depth the withstand the barrage of misfortune.
This matchup tonight might be a little tricky. They’re going up against Durant and Booker who have been lethal all year. Both have the ability to completely go lights out, and put up 40+. However, that’s about all this team has. Phoenix has the top two players on the court, then Memphis has the next seven best players. Depth is Memphis' biggest strength in this matchup. With Phoenix running out such a weak complementary roster around their stars and even weaker bench, they’ll struggle tonight. All Memphis has to do is keep up scoring. They can’t afford to have a bad shooting night against such an elite scoring duo.
The Grizzlies should take this one. They know they need to keep winning as Houston looms only a single game behind them in the standings. With the pressure of losing homecourt, the deeper roster, and better defense, Memphis has the tools to win.
Money line: PHO (+150) / MEM (-180)
Total Points: 244.5
Spread: +4 PHO (-112) / -4 MEM (-180)
Winning every game against Phoenix this year, the Grizzlies have proven themselves as the better team. Despite the scoring talent of the Suns, the Grizzlies have the depth and the size to punish the Suns. Even with JJJ down tonight, they’ll still have the stronger defense and size advantage most of the game. They should be able to slow down Phoenix enough to keep this game close and cliche the series sweep at home.
Out of the three times these teams have played, only one game has come close to this score. It was their last game, which went into OT. Other than that, these games have been more in the 230 range, scoring-wise. Considering Memphis is without JJJ tonight, who has been their leading scorer, it seems reasonable the score will stay a bit more manageable. The under is looking like a solid line.
The Grizzlies should be able to edge out a nice lead by the end of this game. It's been tight in all three other games with them all ending within 3 to 7 points. This might be a line to sweat at the end of the game, but it still has a solid chance to cash.
Booker has struggled to play against the Grizzlies. They have strong, fast defenders to bump him off his spots. Out of the three other games they’ve played this year, Bookers has only gotten over 20 points once. This line feels a couple of points too high.
Durant has been the more consistent player against Memphis. This is their 4th time playing this year, and in the three games before this, he’s been over the 25.5 line. With JJJ down tonight as well, that will open up a ton of space for Durant to work in the midrange. Barring an off-shooting night, Durant should easily be able to get to 26 points tonight.
Edey hasn’t been a double-double machine this year. He’s struggling to hit the 10-point mark in this limited time. Against Phoenix, he may have a stronger chance. All Edey needs is a little more time. He’s been over the 10-rebounding mark the last two games and scoring a little more efficiently. Considering who Phoenix is running out at center, Edey could show up big time tonight.
With Jaren Jackson out we’ve seen Wells begin to up his numbers. Averaging 4.2 boards a game in March with three games in a row over 5, this line looks solid. Especially with the lack of rebounding on Phoenix, Wells won’t have to fight too hard for his boards tonight.